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<br />MAY 1980 <br /> <br />TABLE 1. Statistics for crest without stratification. M and N <br />are the number of seed and no-seed events, respectively. Zeros <br />are the number of zero precipitation events and mean is the <br />average 6 h precipitation [mm(6 h)-']. Ratio is the ratio of mean <br />seed precipitation to mean no-seed precipitation. The test statistic <br />is computed using the Wilcoxon nonparametric two-sample test. <br />P value is the probability by chance alone of having a test <br />statistic value more extreme in either direction than the actually <br />observed test statistic value. The first number is from original <br />work. The second, after the slash, is the new work (i.e., <br />originaUnew) . <br /> <br />Projects <br /> <br />All <br /> <br />Precipitation group Crest <br />Stratifications None <br />M + N = Total number of cases 1248/1003 <br />Seeded Nonseeded <br />M = 499/479 N = 749/524 <br />Zeros = 51150 Zeros = 145/63 <br />Mean = 2.84/2.87 Mean = 2.1212.57 <br />Ratio (seeded/nonseeded) = 1.34/1.12 <br />Test statistic = 4.956/1.835 <br />P value < 0.00110.066 <br /> <br />that this problem did not exist in the remainder of <br />the data set. <br />The problem with the Climax experiments came <br />about because neither Climax'l nor Climax II had <br />project rawinsondes but substituted an interpolation <br />scheme to derive a twice daily sounding from the <br />National Weather Service grid. This meant that <br />there was a pseudo-sounding available every 12 h <br /> <br />NOTES <br /> <br />623 <br /> <br />whether the time period was declared an experimen- <br />tal day or not. Varidman and Moore lifted every <br />sounding available during the winter season with an <br />algorithm designed to determine cloud presence and <br />dimensions. They used every sounding that formed <br />a respectable cloud in their analysis, a consider- <br />able number of which were not within the strict <br />randomization. This problem with the Climax analy- <br />sis introduced bias in the seed/no-seed differences <br />and, when corrected, produced a major change in the <br />overall results as well as the stratified results. Both <br />the corrected data set and changes in results will be <br />discussed. <br /> <br />2. Discussion of the problem <br /> <br />Let us refer to all the cases that were outside of <br />the strict randomization as "renegade cases." A few <br />of the renegade cases were categorized as seeded <br />because of suspected contamination, but an over- <br />whelming majority were categorized as non-seeded <br />because they were, in fact, not involved in the ex- <br />perimental operations. This inclusion of the renegade <br />cases resulted in the non-seeded population of <br />Climax being approximately double that of the seeded <br />population. The rationale was that even though the <br />renegade cases were not within the strict randomiza- <br />tion, they were valuable informative data and should <br />be used in the analysis. <br />However, when one reviews how experimental <br /> <br />TABLE 2_ Stratification over ranges of LCTTI, the lifted cloud-top temperature with respect to ice: (A) warmer than -lOoC, <br />(B) between -10 and -30oC and (C) colder than -30oC. <br /> <br />Projects <br /> <br />All <br /> <br />All <br /> <br />Projects <br /> <br />A. Warmer than -lOoC <br /> <br />Precipitation group Crest <br />Stratifications LCTTI > - 100C <br />M + N = 93/80 <br />Seeded Nonseeded <br />M = 36/34 N = 57/46 <br />Zeros = 10/11 Zeros = 19/12 <br />Mean = 2.9412.98 Mean = 2.33/2.91 <br />Ratio (seeded/nonseeded) = 1.26/1.02 <br />Test statistic = 1.230/0.143 <br />P value = 0.220/0.888 <br /> <br />C. Colder than -30oC <br /> <br />Precipitation group Crest <br />Stratifications LCTTI < - 300C <br />M + N = 294/213 <br />Seeded Nonseeded <br />M = 110/89 N = 184/124 <br />Zeros = 6/6 Zeros = 18/4 <br />Mean = 3.20/3.19 Mean = 3.09/3.69 <br />Ratio (seeded/nonseeded) = 1.03/0.87 <br />Test statistic = 0.413/ -1.392 <br />P value = 0.64010.164 <br /> <br />Projects <br /> <br />All <br /> <br />B. Between -10 and -30oC <br /> <br />Precipitation group Crest <br />Stratifications -lOoC < LCTTI <br />< - 300C <br />M + N = 8611710 <br />Seeded Nonseeded <br />M = 353/356 N = 508/354 <br />Zeros = 35/33 Zeros = 108/47 <br />Mean = 2.7212.78 Mean = 1.74/2.13 <br />Ratio (seeded/nonseeded) = 1.57/1.31 <br />Test statistic = 5.444/3.108 <br />P value = <0.00110.002 <br /> <br />.J <br />