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<br />Flueck, J. A., and D. W. Reynolds, 1986: A forecast experiment on the prediction of cloud conditions suitable
<br />for treatment in the Sierra Nevadas. Proceedings, 10th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather
<br />Modification, Arlington, VA, May 27-30,1986. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, 13-17.
<br />
<br />No abstract.
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<br />Flueck, J. A., M. E. Solak, R. B. Allan, and T. S. Karacostas, 1986: An exploratory analysis of the National
<br />Hail Suppression Program in Greece. Proceedings, 10th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent
<br />Weather Modification, Arlington, V A, May 27-30, 1986. American Meteorological Society, Boston,
<br />MA, 124-127.
<br />
<br />No abstract.
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<br />Flueck, J. A., M. E. Solak, and T. S. Karacostas, 1986: Results of an exploratory experiment witl1in the Greek
<br />National Hail Suppression Program. Journal of Weather Modification, 18:57-63.
<br />
<br />During the summers of 1984 and 1985, a multi-area olperational hail suppression program was conducted
<br />in northern and central Greece, sponsored by the Greek National Agricultural Insurance Institute. Tl1is
<br />operational program included a small exploratory randomized cross-over seeding experiment embedded
<br />within one of the: three operational project areas. This article summarizes the experiment's design,
<br />the network hailpad data, and the initial analyses and results. Substantial reductions (e.g., 30% to 75%)
<br />in the area of coverage, hailstone size, and concentration are apparent in the two summers' data, and the
<br />combined two-season sample provides correspondingly strong inferential two-tailed P-value support
<br />(e.g., .08 to .02) for evidence of treatment effects.
<br />
<br />Flueck, J. A., W. L. Woodley, A. Barnston, and T. J. Brown, 1986: A further assessment of treatment effects in
<br />the Florida Area Cumulus Experiment through guided linear modeling. Journal of Climate and Applied
<br />Meteorology, 25:546-564.
<br />
<br />The Florida Area Cumulus Experiment (FACE) was a two-stage program dedicated to assessing the
<br />potential of "dynamic seeding" for enhancing convective rainfall in a fixed target area. FACE-l
<br />(1970-76) was an exploratory cloud seeding experiment that produced substantial indications of a
<br />positive treattnent effect on rain at the ground, and FACE-2 (1978-80) was a confmnatory experiment
<br />that did not confirm the treattnent effect results of FACE-I.
<br />
<br />This article presents some new analyses of both the FACE-l and FACE-2 data in an effort to better
<br />understand the role of meteorological and treatment factors on rainfall in the days selected for
<br />experimentation in Florida. The analyses rely upon a guided exploratory linear modeling of the natural
<br />target area rainfall and the potential treatment effects. In particular, a conceptual model of natural
<br />Florida rainfall is utilized to guide the consbUction of the exploratory linear model. After the fonn of
<br />the model is selected, it is fitted to both the FACE-l and the FACE-2 data sets in an attempt to reassess
<br />the effects of treatment.
<br />
<br />"
<br />
<br />Two approaches are taken to assess the treattnent effects in FACE-l and in FACE-2: cross-comparison
<br />and cross-validation. Both techniques suggest a positive treatment effect in each stage of FACE (i.e.,
<br />30%-45% in FACE-l and 10%-15% in FACE-2). However, the conventional 0.05 unadjusted statistical
<br />level of support ns only present in the FACE-l data. The question of whether FACE-l results were
<br />different from FACE-2 is unresolved. These results continue to emphasize the need to better account
<br />for the natural convective precipitation processes in south Florida prior to conducting a cloud seeding
<br />project.
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