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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:40:17 PM
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4/23/2008 1:58:21 PM
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Weather Modification
Title
The NOAA Federal/State Cooperative Program in Atmospheric Modification Research - Collected Publication Titles and Abstracts
Date
4/1/1993
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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<br />The purpose of this investigation is twofold: (a) to estimate ATIs only for the growth portion of a <br />convective stonn (while the rain volume is computed using the entire life history of the convective <br />event); and (b) to nowcast the total rain volume of a convective system at the stage of its maximum <br />development. For the aforementioned purpose, the A TIs were computed using the maximum echo area <br />~ 25 dBZ (A TIA), the maximum reflectivity (A TIR), and the maximum echo height (ARIH) as the end <br />of the growth portion of the convective event. <br /> <br />A simple linear regression analysis demonstrated that correlations between total rain volume (TVR) or <br />the maximum rain volume (MVR) versus the A TIA were the strongest. In a log-log plot. the correlation <br />coefficient and the standard error of estimates of total rain volume versus A TIA were 0.98 and 0.23 for <br />the summer 1982 data, and 0.96 and 0.24 for the summer 1981 data, respectively. In percentage tenns, <br />the corresponding range of variation of the rain volume for a given A TlA lies between 70% and -41 % <br />(1982 data) and between 74% and -44% (1981 data). This is comparable to the uncertainties which <br />typically occur in rain volume estimates obtained from radar data employing Z-R conversion followed <br />by space and time integration. This demonstrates that the total rain volume of a stonn can be <br />nowcasted at its maximum stage of development (max A TIA). <br /> <br />The scatter in the rain volume and in the maximum volumetric rain rate estimates is somewhat smaller <br />if a multiple linear regression instead of a simple linear regression is considered, but the improvement is <br />of little significance. The tests with independent data confinned the consistency of the results for the <br />region considered. <br /> <br />Doneaud, A. A., J. R. Miller, Jr., and A. Makarau, 1986: A modified A TI technique for possible satellite <br />applications. Preprints, 23rd Conference on Radar Meteorology and Conference on Cloud Physics, <br />Snowmass, CO, September 22-26, 1986. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, Vol. 3, <br />JP27-JP32. <br /> <br />No abstract. <br /> <br />Doneaud. A. A., S. Ionescu-Niscov, and J. R. Miller. Jr.. 1984: Convective rain rates and their evolution during <br />stonns in a semiarid climate. Monthly Weather Review, 112:1602-1612. <br /> <br />Rain rates and their evolution during summertime convective stonns were analyzed for the semiarid <br />climate of the northern High Plains. Radar data from a total of 750 radar echo clusters from the 1980 <br />and 1981 summer cloud seeding operations of the North Dakota Cloud Modification Project (NDCMP) <br />were used. The analysis suggests that the average rain rate Ii. among stonns is, in a first <br />approximation, independent of the total rain volume if the entire stonn duration is considered in the <br />averaging process. This average rain rate depends primarily on the reflectivity threshold considered in <br />calculating the area coverage integrated over the lifetime of the stonn, the area-time integral (ATI). For <br />the 25 dBZ reflectivity threshold used in the A TI computations. Ii. was 4.0 mm h.J. with a standard <br />deviation of 1.55 mm h-J being -20% higher for wet season conditions. <br /> <br />The evolution of rain rates during stonns was analyzed by dividing each stonn lifetime into 10 min, <br />I, 2, and 4 h, and growing and decaying periods. A lO-min time increment was used in computing the <br />parameters for all time intervals. A stonn cluster reached its maximum growth after an average of 56% <br />of its lifetime. The average rain rate for the growing period exceeded that for the decaying period by <br />about 10%. As the time interval used in the computations approached the stonn lifetime, the scatter of <br />the average rain rates was reduced, thus increasing the accuracy of rainfall estimates using the area-time <br />integral. The value of Ii. remained independent of the total rain volume when the growing or decaying <br /> <br />'\ <br />I <br />I <br />.1 <br /> <br />30 <br />
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