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<br />
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<br />
<br />manner. At' the start of each field season, Professors
<br />William Kruskal and K. Alexander Brownlee prepared a
<br />set of sealed and . dated opaque envelopes containing
<br />randomized instructions to seed or not to seed-one
<br />envelope for each day of the season. A record of the
<br />instructions was retained for later verification. In the
<br />field on an experimental day the envelope was opened
<br />only after we had completed all actions and decisions re-
<br />lating to designation of an experimental day, forecasting
<br />mean winds, selection of the position of the seeding line,
<br />designation of seeding altitude, determination that
<br />seeder planes and radar were operational and that
<br />weather conditions would permit operation of the seeder
<br />planes. Envelopes for days declared nonexperimental
<br />(nonoperational) were returned to the University
<br />unopened. .
<br />Local winds were measured every two hours at the
<br />West Plains Airport and were used to define a wind-borne
<br />target area (plume) where measured winds could have
<br />transported the seeding material. The rem~inder of the
<br />exp~rimental area was designated as the control area
<br />(nbnplume) and was considered to be that area within
<br />the experimental circle where winds and turb~ence were
<br />not likely to have carried silver iodide. Target and con-
<br />trol areas were constructed in an identical fashion on all
<br />experimental days.
<br />In the design of the experiment the non plume control
<br />area was conceived as a within-day covariate to help
<br />allow for meteorological and topographical differences not
<br />balanced out by randomization. Differences between
<br />target and control precipitation (rainfall and radar echo
<br />cover) are regarded as the primary dimensions for testing
<br />seeding effects.
<br />'Recognizing the data-reduction phase as one which had
<br />been severely criticized on earlier projects, we took a
<br />number of steps to isolate it from all knowledge about
<br />seeding.
<br />In the case of the surface rainfall data, rain gage
<br />charts were mailed directly to Professor Wayne Decker,
<br />University of Missouri, who was supported under a
<br />separate NSF grant for rainfall data reduction. Only
<br />after he had reduced the rainfall data to a set of tabulated
<br />hourly rain amounts for each station, and reported them
<br />to NSF, was he supplied with information about when
<br />and where seeding took place. .
<br />Integrity of radar data reduction was maintained by
<br />placing a randomized identifier number inside the radar
<br />camera in lieu of date identification. These numbers were
<br />provided to the radar operator by Professors Brownlee
<br />and Kruskal and were not available to any other person.
<br />Only after the radar echo data had been extracted and
<br />tabulated from the coded films was the calendar date of
<br />each film identified.
<br />With the exception of dispatching the seeder planes,
<br />all activities on the project proceeded identically on
<br />seeded and not-seeded days. Once designated for seeding,
<br />a day remained in the seeded group regardless of the
<br />amount of seeding material dispensed.
<br />
<br />.
<br />
<br />
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<br />
<br />Joumal of the American Statistical Association, March 1979
<br />
<br />Whitetop was a pioneering experiment. It was the first
<br />large-scale randomized experiment to seed nonorQgraphic
<br />swnmer convective clouds. A large fraction of the basic
<br />dal~a, including all the rainfall data, was published at
<br />about the sam(' time that the data became available to
<br />project scientists. It was the first large seeding experi-
<br />ment to be conducted in parallel with extensive physical
<br />st\lldies of clouds on the seeded and not-seeded days.
<br />
<br />'c I
<br />
<br />3.1 Whitetop Results.
<br />
<br />Analyses of the seeding results were conducted by
<br />Professor Decker at the University of Missouri (Decker
<br />and Schickedanz 1966; Decker, Chang, and Krause
<br />19n), by Professor Neyman and associates at Berkeley
<br />(Neyman, Scott; and Wells 1969; Lovasich et al. 1969,
<br />19na, b), and by Whitetop scientists (Flueck .1968,
<br />19n; Braham 1965; Braham, McCarthy, and Flueck
<br />19n).
<br />. Preliminary analyses of Whitetop data were conducted
<br />by Mr. Michael Hoyle, under the supervision of Profes-
<br />sors Brownlee and Kruskal. These analyses contributed
<br />to papers presented at scientific meetings, but were not
<br />publishe~. The main project analysis of statistical aspects
<br />of lOur seeding trials was conducted, under the guidance
<br />of :Professors Brownlee and Kruskal, by John A. Flueck,
<br />who was able to draw on training in both physics and
<br />statistics. Dr. Flueck took a data analysis point uf view,
<br />placing' emphasis on "discovery, exposure and sum-
<br />marization of the treatment effect relationships." His
<br />published findings (Flueck 1971) consider both rain and
<br />echo in the six hours reserved for seeding, the five post-
<br />seeding hours, and the eleven hours combined. He also
<br />considered several post-factum data partitions based on
<br />meteorological factors and on distance downwind from
<br />the seeding line. Complete tabulated statistical data for
<br />all tests used (both' parametric and nonparametric), by
<br />yes,r and across years, and for all partitions considered,
<br />are given by Flueck (1971). .
<br />Because of space limitations, this article only sum-
<br />marizes the highlights of Whitetop results. We stress the
<br />use of statistics to assess the strengths of "structural re-
<br />lationships" anticipated from a knowledge of the physical
<br />processes governing movement of seeding materials, in-
<br />gestion of materials into cumulus clouds, and the re-
<br />sponse of clouds to seeding. We also take advantage of
<br />the various physical measurements and meteorological
<br />studies built into the project and of subsequent findings
<br />by other groups.
<br />We begin by accept~ng that the effects of seeding
<br />should be most pronounced in the wind-advected target
<br />are:!!., which was constructed to include all the" area where
<br />winds would have been likely to carry the seeding mate-
<br />rial. We further accept that the control area should give
<br />a measure of protection against the effects of uncontrolled
<br />factors not balanced out by randomization, even if there
<br />were some seeding spillover into it. Finally, we accept
<br />that target-control differences should give the correct
<br />
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