<br />1996
<br />
<br />JOURN AL OF CLIMATE AND APPLIED METEOROLOGY
<br />
<br />VOLUME 22
<br />
<br />However, due to late delivery of the generators, and
<br />subsequent operational problems, it was decided by
<br />early December to commence seeding with manual
<br />generators from a single location. Limited resources
<br />did not permit manual operation of the planned second
<br />seeding site during the winter of 1969-70, and it was
<br />recognized that coverage by a single generator site
<br />might often be inadequate. Nevertheless, as all other
<br />equipment and personnel were operational, it was de-
<br />cided to proceed so that at least a complete operational
<br />"shakedown" of all equipment and procedures might
<br />be achieved.
<br />Additional resources and improved technology made
<br />several significant advances possible prior to the 1970-
<br />71 winter. These were also carried through the 1971-
<br />72 winter season. By November 1970 both high ele-
<br />vation seeding sites were operational. Each was
<br />equipped with an improved AgI generator system
<br />compared with the commercial versions of the Col-
<br />orado State University (CSU) modified Skyfire gen-
<br />erator previously used. Another important change was
<br />that NH41 was used to complex the AgI rather than
<br />NaI. This improved the ice nucleation in the laboratory
<br />at higher temperatures (Donnan et aI., 1970). Precip-
<br />itation gages were installed at each seeding site. Also,
<br />while radiosonde observations were made during 1969-
<br />70, rawinsonde capability was added before the 1970-
<br />71 winter, providing information on local winds aloft.
<br />For these reasons, the 1970-71 and 1971-72 dataset
<br />is considered superior to al).d not totally compatible
<br />with the 1969-70 data. .Therefore, except in Section
<br />7f, only the 1970-71 and 1971-72 dataset is analyzed
<br />herein. This consists of 185 experimental days.
<br />The BRE used the 24 h day beginning at local noon,
<br />a known minimum in Bridger Range winter precipi-
<br />tation, as the basic experimental unit. Experimental
<br />days were declared whenever a special forecast, issued
<br />each morning by the National Weather Service Office
<br />at Helena, Montana, indicated the probability of pre-
<br />cipitation at the Bozeman Airport exceeded 20% during
<br />the 24 h beginning at noon. Forecasts were made for
<br />the airport located 17 km west of the Bridger Range
<br />rather than the Range itself because the forecasters
<br />routinely predicted the weather for this location, and
<br />had verification observations available from the Federal
<br />Aviation Administration office there. The forecasters
<br />were not aware of the consequences of their forecast
<br />on each day's activity for the BRE. The purpose of
<br />the forecast was to attempt to exclude days with little
<br />likelihood of precipitation from the experiment in order
<br />to give field personnel time off.
<br />Before the AgI plume tracing and pibal investigations
<br />discussed in Super (1974) and Section 4 were com-
<br />pleted, it was considered important to provide a buffer
<br />period between seeded and nonseeded days to reduce
<br />possible contamination by the AgI. During the winters
<br />of 1969-70 and 1970-71, a buffer period of at least 3
<br />
<br />h was provided in the following manner. Cloud and
<br />snowfall observations, obtained prior to the BRE, in-
<br />dicated that snowfall was unlikely for at least 3 h fol-
<br />lowing an observation of cloud base higher than 3000
<br />m and cloud cover less than 6/10. These cloud base and
<br />cover criteria were designated Potential Storm Con-
<br />ditions (PSC). It is noteworthy that the highest peak
<br />in the Bridger Range is just under 3000 m, providing
<br />a convenient visual reference for cloud base.
<br />On each experimental day, whether or not seeding
<br />had taken place, PSC observations were made at 0900
<br />(all times MST), 3 h prior to the end of the experimental
<br />unit. IfPSC did not then exist, a new random decision
<br />was used for the next experimental day and if clouds
<br />had been seeded during the present day, AgI generators
<br />were immediately turned off. If PSC existed at 0900,
<br />another observation was made at 1200. If PSC still
<br />existed, the prior random decision was carried over to
<br />the new 24 h period starting at that time, which was
<br />considered an experimental day regardless of the NWS
<br />special forecast. IfPSC existed at 0900 but not at 1200,
<br />a new random decision was made for the next exper-
<br />imental day, that is, the next day with a greater than
<br />20% precipitation probability forecast. Thus, in this
<br />case, the next experimental day would start immedi-
<br />ately at 1200 if, and only if, the forecast probability
<br />exceeded 20%. These procedures were identically ap-
<br />plied for nonseeded and seeded experimental days.
<br />Whatever the period of actual treatment, the sole
<br />response variable in the analysis herein was the 24 h
<br />noon-to-noon precipitation amount as measured by
<br />the gage network shown in Fig. I.
<br />Random decisions were obtained by the opening of
<br />sealed envelopes which had been prepared under the
<br />supervision of Dr. Paul Mielke ofCSU, statistical con-
<br />sultant to the BRE. A simple block randomization
<br />scheme was used during the 1969-70 and 1970~7-1
<br />winters in which no more than four seed or nonseed
<br />decisions were allowed to occur in sequence.
<br />To summarizefor the 1969-70 and 1970-71 winters,
<br />experimental units and the precipitation amount re-
<br />sponse variable were always for 24 h, beginning at
<br />local noon. The treatment period, however, was some-
<br />times shorter if PSC didn't exist throughout the 24 h
<br />experimental unit. Individual random decisions were
<br />sometimes carried over to an additional day or even
<br />days ifPSC continued to exist during the last 3 h (0900
<br />and 1200 observations) of an experimental unit. This
<br />procedure was intended to minimize possible AgI con-
<br />tamination of nonseeded days following seeded days
<br />by providing a minimum 3 h buffer period without
<br />treatment between all experimental units based on a
<br />new random decision. Appendix A of Part I contains
<br />a complete listing of hours of AgI generator opera-
<br />tion and the basis for each day's treatment decision,
<br />whether new random decision, or carry-over due to
<br />continued PSc.
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