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<br />1996 <br /> <br />JOURN AL OF CLIMATE AND APPLIED METEOROLOGY <br /> <br />VOLUME 22 <br /> <br />However, due to late delivery of the generators, and <br />subsequent operational problems, it was decided by <br />early December to commence seeding with manual <br />generators from a single location. Limited resources <br />did not permit manual operation of the planned second <br />seeding site during the winter of 1969-70, and it was <br />recognized that coverage by a single generator site <br />might often be inadequate. Nevertheless, as all other <br />equipment and personnel were operational, it was de- <br />cided to proceed so that at least a complete operational <br />"shakedown" of all equipment and procedures might <br />be achieved. <br />Additional resources and improved technology made <br />several significant advances possible prior to the 1970- <br />71 winter. These were also carried through the 1971- <br />72 winter season. By November 1970 both high ele- <br />vation seeding sites were operational. Each was <br />equipped with an improved AgI generator system <br />compared with the commercial versions of the Col- <br />orado State University (CSU) modified Skyfire gen- <br />erator previously used. Another important change was <br />that NH41 was used to complex the AgI rather than <br />NaI. This improved the ice nucleation in the laboratory <br />at higher temperatures (Donnan et aI., 1970). Precip- <br />itation gages were installed at each seeding site. Also, <br />while radiosonde observations were made during 1969- <br />70, rawinsonde capability was added before the 1970- <br />71 winter, providing information on local winds aloft. <br />For these reasons, the 1970-71 and 1971-72 dataset <br />is considered superior to al).d not totally compatible <br />with the 1969-70 data. .Therefore, except in Section <br />7f, only the 1970-71 and 1971-72 dataset is analyzed <br />herein. This consists of 185 experimental days. <br />The BRE used the 24 h day beginning at local noon, <br />a known minimum in Bridger Range winter precipi- <br />tation, as the basic experimental unit. Experimental <br />days were declared whenever a special forecast, issued <br />each morning by the National Weather Service Office <br />at Helena, Montana, indicated the probability of pre- <br />cipitation at the Bozeman Airport exceeded 20% during <br />the 24 h beginning at noon. Forecasts were made for <br />the airport located 17 km west of the Bridger Range <br />rather than the Range itself because the forecasters <br />routinely predicted the weather for this location, and <br />had verification observations available from the Federal <br />Aviation Administration office there. The forecasters <br />were not aware of the consequences of their forecast <br />on each day's activity for the BRE. The purpose of <br />the forecast was to attempt to exclude days with little <br />likelihood of precipitation from the experiment in order <br />to give field personnel time off. <br />Before the AgI plume tracing and pibal investigations <br />discussed in Super (1974) and Section 4 were com- <br />pleted, it was considered important to provide a buffer <br />period between seeded and nonseeded days to reduce <br />possible contamination by the AgI. During the winters <br />of 1969-70 and 1970-71, a buffer period of at least 3 <br /> <br />h was provided in the following manner. Cloud and <br />snowfall observations, obtained prior to the BRE, in- <br />dicated that snowfall was unlikely for at least 3 h fol- <br />lowing an observation of cloud base higher than 3000 <br />m and cloud cover less than 6/10. These cloud base and <br />cover criteria were designated Potential Storm Con- <br />ditions (PSC). It is noteworthy that the highest peak <br />in the Bridger Range is just under 3000 m, providing <br />a convenient visual reference for cloud base. <br />On each experimental day, whether or not seeding <br />had taken place, PSC observations were made at 0900 <br />(all times MST), 3 h prior to the end of the experimental <br />unit. IfPSC did not then exist, a new random decision <br />was used for the next experimental day and if clouds <br />had been seeded during the present day, AgI generators <br />were immediately turned off. If PSC existed at 0900, <br />another observation was made at 1200. If PSC still <br />existed, the prior random decision was carried over to <br />the new 24 h period starting at that time, which was <br />considered an experimental day regardless of the NWS <br />special forecast. IfPSC existed at 0900 but not at 1200, <br />a new random decision was made for the next exper- <br />imental day, that is, the next day with a greater than <br />20% precipitation probability forecast. Thus, in this <br />case, the next experimental day would start immedi- <br />ately at 1200 if, and only if, the forecast probability <br />exceeded 20%. These procedures were identically ap- <br />plied for nonseeded and seeded experimental days. <br />Whatever the period of actual treatment, the sole <br />response variable in the analysis herein was the 24 h <br />noon-to-noon precipitation amount as measured by <br />the gage network shown in Fig. I. <br />Random decisions were obtained by the opening of <br />sealed envelopes which had been prepared under the <br />supervision of Dr. Paul Mielke ofCSU, statistical con- <br />sultant to the BRE. A simple block randomization <br />scheme was used during the 1969-70 and 1970~7-1 <br />winters in which no more than four seed or nonseed <br />decisions were allowed to occur in sequence. <br />To summarizefor the 1969-70 and 1970-71 winters, <br />experimental units and the precipitation amount re- <br />sponse variable were always for 24 h, beginning at <br />local noon. The treatment period, however, was some- <br />times shorter if PSC didn't exist throughout the 24 h <br />experimental unit. Individual random decisions were <br />sometimes carried over to an additional day or even <br />days ifPSC continued to exist during the last 3 h (0900 <br />and 1200 observations) of an experimental unit. This <br />procedure was intended to minimize possible AgI con- <br />tamination of nonseeded days following seeded days <br />by providing a minimum 3 h buffer period without <br />treatment between all experimental units based on a <br />new random decision. Appendix A of Part I contains <br />a complete listing of hours of AgI generator opera- <br />tion and the basis for each day's treatment decision, <br />whether new random decision, or carry-over due to <br />continued PSc. <br />