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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:40:04 PM
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4/23/2008 1:56:49 PM
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Weather Modification
Title
Evaluation of Bridger Range Winter Cloud Seeding Experiment Using Control Gages
Date
12/12/1983
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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<br />2004 <br /> <br />JOURNAL OF CLIMATE AND APPLIED METEOROLOGY <br /> <br />VOLUME 22 <br /> <br />as estimated from the radiosonde data available, had <br />little if any association with suggested seeding effects. <br />An attempt was made to test Grant and .Elliott's <br />(1974) suggestion that cloud top temperature should <br />be important in establishing the requirement for seed- <br />ing in the BRE. Dual partitions were used such that <br />only days with mean Ridge temperatures ~ -9.0oC <br />were included and further partitioning was by cloud <br />top temperature. The results of partitioning this pop- , <br />ulation into halves, thirds and quarters are shown in <br />Table 8. <br />It can be seen that the lower half of the cloud top <br />temperatures yielded relatively low probability values <br />in Zones 1 and 2, while the warmer cases did not. The <br />cases contributing to the low values appear to be con- <br />centrated from approximately -38 to -280C. The <br />mean double ratios associated with those probability <br />values ~0.05 ranged from 1.54 for all 84 cases in Zone <br />1 to 2.41 for the second coldest quarter in Zone 1. <br />This does not support the notion that cold cloud tops, <br />with presumed naturally high ice crystal concentra- <br />tions, reduces or eliminates seeding potential near <br />Bridger Range mountaintop levels. <br />It is worth recalling that the Bridger Range rises <br />abruptly and is a rather narrow barrier (see Fig. 1). <br />Ice crystals formed high above the surface would be <br />expected to have greater influence on broad barriers <br />where the crystals would more frequently have suffi- <br />cient time for settling to the surface before being trans- <br />ported beyond the barrier. <br /> <br />d. Partitioning by 500 mb temperature <br /> <br />The temperature at 500 mb has been used to par- <br />tition a number of winter orographic cloud seeding <br />projects, often with the assumption that it is an ap- <br />proximation or index of cloud top temperature. The <br />Climax experiments are a notable example of appar- <br />ently successful partitioning by the 500 mb temperature <br />(Mielke et al., 1981a and Mielke et al., 1982). The <br />BRE was also partitioned by this parameter because <br />of its widespread usage. <br /> <br />Once again, all available local sounding data were <br />averaged to estimate the daily 500 mb temperature. <br />The median value for the entire population of 152 <br />days was -260C, and 80% of all daily means were <br />between -19.5 and -34.50C. The Wilcoxon test was <br />applied to the entire population, and halves, thirds and <br />quarters of it, for the three zones of Fig. 1. Only one <br />of the resulting 30 probability values was ~0.05, which <br />could be expected by chance. Therefore, partitioning <br />the BRE data by 500 mb temperature alone did not <br />suggest any changes in snowfall associated with seeding. <br /> <br />e. Partitioning by 700 mb wind speed <br /> <br />The component of the horizontal wind speed per- <br />pendicular to the Bridger Range might be expected to <br />be quite important to the precipitation process, both <br />for natural and seeded storms. Hill (1980a) argues that <br />the cross-barrier flux of supercooled water is approx- <br />imately proportional to the square of the cross-barrier <br />wind speed. Further evidence to support this concept <br />is given by Hill (1982). In addition, the. amount of <br />time available for ice particle growth and fallout at <br />any downwind distance is largely dependent upon the <br />cross-barrier wind speed. <br />The eastward component of the 700 mb wind speed <br />was chosen to approximate the cross-barrier wind <br />speed. This quantity was calculated for each available <br />rawinsonde observation and the average of all available <br />observations was used to partition each 24 h experi- <br />mental unit. <br />The entire population of 148 experimental days with <br />a measured positive eastward component of 700 mb <br />wind speed was subdivided into halves, thirds and <br />quarters. These and the whole population were tested <br />by the Wilcoxon test for Zones 1, 2 and 3 of Fig. 1. <br />Of the resulting 30 values of Wilcoxon probability, <br />only one was ~0.05. This is about what one would <br />expect by chance indicating that normal wind speed <br />alone was not strongly associated with suggested seed- <br />ing effects. This should probably not be a surprising <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />TABLE 9. Ridge temperature partitions for colder days using the single Gallatin Range gage for control. <br />Probabilities and double ratios (DR) are for 3 zones of Fig. 1. <br /> <br /> Experimental <br /> days Zone I Zone 2 Zone 3 <br />Range <br />(0C) All s/ns* W** MRPP D.R. W MRPP D.R. W MRPP D.R. <br />~ -7.0 131 65/66 0.08 0.09 1.34/2.67 0,20 0.10 1.11/2.10 0.28 0.26 1.16/4.20 <br />~ -9.0 100 44/56 0.06 0.09 1/51/1/65 0.11 0.10 1.33/1.87 0.11 O.ll 1.39/4.30 <br />~ -11.0 68 31/37 0.08 0.08 1.34/1.66 0.25 0.34 1.42/1.66 0.11 0.16 1.52/4.50 <br />~ -13.0 49 22/27 0.05 0.03 1.50/3.62 0.02 0.02 2.31/5.24 0.04 0.05 2.55/9.17 <br />~ -15.0 26 10/16 0.30 0.25 0.95/0.86 0.11 0.17 1.82/2.04 0.05 0.06 1.87/5.71 <br />* s-seeded/ns-nonseeded, <br />** Wilcoxon. <br />
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