Laserfiche WebLink
<br />1998 <br /> <br />JOURNAL OF CLIMATE AND APPLIED METEOROLOGY <br /> <br />VOLUME 22 <br /> <br />nonseeded cases. Toward this end, estimates were cal- <br />culated using the "mean double ratio" defined by (Ts/ <br />Tns)/Cs/Cns) where T and C refer to target and control <br />mean precipitation amounts' and sand ns refer to <br />seeded and nonse,eded experimental units. However, <br />as pointed out by Mielke et al. (198Ia), double ratios <br />can be dominated by a few large precipitation events. <br />This depends upon the distribution of precipitation <br />amounts yielded by a particular partition. But, in gen- <br />eral, the lower the association between the target and <br />control and the smaller the subpopulation being ex- <br />amined, the more unstable the double ratios tend to <br />become. Hence, they should be interpreted with care, <br />especially for small populations and for Zones 2 and <br />3 which have a lesser association with the control gages <br />than Zone I, as will be shown. <br />In an attempt to reduce the impact of a few large <br />storms on the mean double ratio, a second double <br />ratio was calculated, as suggested by a reviewer, by <br />substituting median target and control precipitation <br />amounts for mean amounts. This "median double ra- <br />tio" has a shortcoming in that it can become unstable <br />with subpopulations containing a relatively high fre- <br />quency of zero precipitation amounts. It becomes in- <br />determinate if more than half the cases have zero pre- <br />cipitation. This problem is again greatest iIi Zones 2 <br />and 3, particularly in the latter. These zones are in the <br />lee of the Bridger Range and sometimes have zero <br />precipitation during days with significant snowfall <br />. amounts in Zone I. <br />Both the mean and median double ratios will be <br />presented with the caveats noted above. It is not known <br />which is most appropriate in any particular partition. <br />This would presume knowledge about whether seeding <br />effects (if any) are proportionally greater for large or <br />small storms, as well as whether seeding causes pre- <br />cipitation during naturally non-precipitating periods. <br />The double ratios do provide an indication of the mag- <br />nitude of any seeding effect-a matter of obvious in- <br />terest. <br /> <br />7. Results of partitioning experimental units <br /> <br />Except where noted, precipitation data were grouped <br />into three zones for all statistical testing. This was done <br />by the simple expedient of averaging data from all <br />gages less than 20 km, from 20 to 30 km, and beyond <br />30 km from the midpoint between the two generator <br />sites (see Fig. 1). This resulted in 12 gages on or near <br />the intended Bangtail Ridge target area designated as <br />Zone I. Nine gages were in Zone 2, the lee slope of <br />the Bangtail Ridge and seven gages were in Zone 3, <br />more than 30 km downwind of the generators. <br /> <br />a. Partitioning by Main Ridge temperature <br /> <br />Since the AgI generator calibration illustrated in <br />Fig. 2 shows a marked temperature dependence in <br /> <br />effective ice nuclei, it is reasonable to partition ex- <br />perimental days by plume temperature. The AgI plume <br />measurements of Super (1974), together with the gen- <br />erator calibration of Fig. '2, indicate that the artificial <br />ice nuclei concentrations would not exceed more than <br />a few per liter until plume temperatures decreased be- <br />low about -80e. . <br />The evidence from airborne tracing of AgI plumes <br />indicated that the seeding material was usually in the <br />lowest 400-500 m above the Main Ridge. Thus, the <br />temperature measured by thermograph on the Main <br />Ridge crest is a convenient estimate of plume tem- <br />perature. For typical in-cloud lapse rates, the plume <br />top should have been no more than 30e below the <br />Main Ridge temperature (hereafter called Ridge tem- <br />perature), assuming the plume ascended less than 500 <br />m above the Main Ridge. The average of the 24 hourly <br />Ridge temperature measurements was used to partition <br />each experimental unit. <br />In order to search for possible seeding effects in a <br />consistent manner, the following scheme was applied <br />to the population of Ridge temperatures and to all <br />other parameters used to partition the experimental <br />days into subpopulations. This approach avoided some <br />of the multiplicity involved in continued searching for <br />those particular ranges that yield the lowest probabil- <br />ities. The entire available population of experimental <br />days was subdivided, as closely as possible, into halves, <br />thirds and quarters. These fractions of the whole pop- <br />ulation, as well as the entire population, were then <br />subjected to the statistical tests discussed in Section 6. <br />The resulting one-tailed probabilities for Ridge tem- <br />peratures are shown in Table 2. It can be seen that <br />values for both statistical tests suggest that the colder <br />portion of the total population had significant differ- <br />ences between seeded and nonseeded subpopulations. <br />No significant differences are evident for the warmer <br />half of the total population. <br />The colder portion of the population was examined <br />further, by testing the subpopulations indicated in Ta- <br />ble 3 using 20e intervals. Mean and median double <br />ratios are also shown. It is seen that eJ!,cept for the <br />coldest and warmest subpopulations shown, proba- <br />bilities are 0.01-0.02 by both tests for Zone I, the <br />intended target. The highest mean and median double <br />ratios are 1.90 and 2.35, respectively, both for tem- <br />peratures of -13 oe and colder, which suggests an ap- <br />proximate doubling of the precipitation in that par- <br />tition. Low probability values are also seen in the other <br />two zones for temperatures lower than about -II oe. <br />The highest mean double ratios in Zones 2 and 3 exceed <br />2.0 and are for those cases ~ 130e. The median double <br />ratios are much larger than the mean double ratios in <br />Zone .3, especially for the colder cases. This was due <br />to very low median values for nonseeded days in Zone <br />3. For example, for the 27 nonseeded days with Ridge <br />temperatures ~ -130, the median precipitation <br /> <br />