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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:39:58 PM
Creation date
4/23/2008 12:04:56 PM
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Template:
Weather Modification
Title
The Management of Weather Resources - Volume II
Prepared For
The Weather Modification Advisory Board
Date
6/30/1978
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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<br />B-7 <br /> <br />experiment. <br /> <br />A criticism of the earlier Israel study (Isareli I 1960-1967) that has received some atten- <br />tion in the literaturl~ pertains to the changes in daily schedule for seeding and recording ov~r <br />the course of the study. Despite the fact that a subset of results for a period for which the <br />seeding and recording times were fixed showed signific:ant seeding effects, and despite the fact <br />that the shifting of times for seeding and recording could hav~ no systematic influence on <br />results if seeding had been ineffective, the fact that procedures were changed raised some <br />doubts, probably unnecessarily, about the value of the study. This nicely illustrates the sub- <br />stantial importance of maintaining a fixed experimental design for confirmatory research, in <br />order to assure a properly skeptical audience that results could not have been influenced by pro- <br />cedural changes. <br /> <br />* Alberta hail * <br /> <br />The operational changes made in the Alberta hail project during its first season re:sulted in <br />the loss of a randomized design in favor of operational seeding. <br /> <br />* Santa Barbara II * <br /> <br />Phase 1 had depended upon ground based seeding while Phase 2 was designe:d for air- <br />borne seeding. Phase 1 used a fixed control area, while Phase 2 used no control area. (This <br />change was reflected in the use of double ratios in analyzing Phase 1 and single ratios in Phase <br />2,) Apparently no other critical changes were made during the course of Santa Barbara II. <br /> <br />* South Africa hail * <br /> <br />There is no evidence for substantive changes, other than the acquisition of more capable <br />aircraft, in the South African hail suppression program since its inception in 1972. <br /> <br />* North Dakota * <br /> <br />The operational design seems to have been maintained without substantive change <br />throughout the term of the North Dakota pilot project, 1969 to 1972. Radiosondes and cloud <br />modelling wen: introduced in 1971, allowing more sophisticated definitions of seedability. <br /> <br />* Tasmania * <br /> <br />The report on this project (Smith, Veitch, Shaw and Miller, 1977) is to be commended <br />for its careful documentation of the days on which operations were suspended. We detect no <br />sign of any serious issue here. <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />10. Remote effect issues. <br /> <br />In this section we summarize briefly issues involving the possible occurrence of remote <br />effects which could influence reported results. <br /> <br />* FACE * <br /> <br />No control areas were used, thus remote effects of any importance would have had to <br />arise as effects in the target area from other seeding operations. <br /> <br />* ,NHRE * <br /> <br />No control areas, remote effects could only have arisen from other seeding operations. <br /> <br />* Colorado River Basin * <br /> <br />No control areas, remote effects could only arise from other seeding operations. <br /> <br />~ <br />
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