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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:39:58 PM
Creation date
4/23/2008 12:04:56 PM
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Template:
Weather Modification
Title
The Management of Weather Resources - Volume II
Prepared For
The Weather Modification Advisory Board
Date
6/30/1978
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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<br />B-5 <br /> <br />assessed by insuranl;e claims. The farmers who request crop insurance settlement are the same <br />farmers who, through their cooperative association, sponsor the experiment. It is possible that <br />their voluntary reports of crop loss for insurance purposes are influenced by their knowledge <br />that a storm was seeded, their (positive) attitudes toward the hail-suppression efforts and their <br />financial support of the study, and their assumptions concerning the effects of filing insurance <br />claims for crop damage upon future insurance coverage. Such possible sources of bias seem <br />inevitable when the dependent variable is influenced by the voluntary choices of interested par- <br />ties in reporting results. <br /> <br />* North Dakota * <br /> <br />In the North Dakota pilot project, the random selection of no-seed days "was made in <br />advance of the starting date each year and this information was communicated in advance to <br />the meteorologists, pilots, and radar technicians on the project to help them in planning work <br />schedules and equipment maintenance." Thus it appears that all personnel knew in advance <br />whether or not an e:xperimental unit was to be seeded. To the extent that this knowledge cons- <br />ciously or unconsc:iously influenced measurement pJrOcedures on seed or no-seed days, it <br />represents a possibly troublesome source of bias. The use of randomization in anallysis, of <br />course, provides no palliative for such bias. <br /> <br />This study embodied interest both in rain production and hail suppression. On a day that <br />had been selected for seeding, if the project meteorologist judged a storm to be approaching <br />hail intensity on thc~ basis of reported hail on the ground or radar reflectivity beyond a predeter- <br />mined threshold, the seeding rate was increased to the "hail suppression mode". Allowing this <br />important change in procedures to be determined by a meteorologist's judgment at best restricts <br />the generality of results. Were the hail suppression mode to be viewed as an important feature <br />of the study, it would have been advisable to establish totally objective criteria for that mode, in <br />advance, and to remove subjective factors from exerting influence on the decision. <br /> <br />Crop insurance claims were used in the North Dakota study to help evaluate hail With <br />all personnel aware of the identity of seed, no-seed days and of whether or not seed dllY~, were <br />placed in the hail suppression mode, there is the possibility of bias from conscious or uncons- <br />cious differences in collecting and recording insurance claims, depending on the experimental <br />treatment that had been employed. <br /> <br />* Tasmania .. <br /> <br />One cause for concern here is that "if the wind was such that the silver iodide might pass <br />over one of the control areas no seeding was carried out but the experiment was not <br />suspended." (Since the rainfall for such periods was still recorded as "seeded", the only <br />unfavorable consequence of such decisions would be a decrease in sensitivity. The action here <br />was thus conservsltive and well-taken. Our noting it as a subjective decision implies NO <br />corresponding ground for criticism of the experiment or its results.) <br /> <br />9. Operational Changes and Difficulties <br />Experimental efforts to modify the production of rain or hail entail a variety of charac- <br />teristic difficulties. "Suitable conditions" for influencing rain or hail in a given environment <br />occur infrequently -- in some cases, about 25 days a year. The influence of experimental inter- <br />vention is unlikely to change the effects of nature by more than a modest amount. The, varia- <br />bility of precipitation from day to day is great, with or without experimental intervl~ntion, <br />requiring a large number of observations to detect possible experimental effects. Consequently, <br />
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