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<br />A-4 <br /> <br />we recognize it, in these particular circumstances, as a special public need ~ <br /> <br />'" data management * <br /> <br />Good data not only requires careful supervision through its first recording; it requires <br />careful and thoughtful handling thereafter. If, as is becoming more economical (and often <br />necessary if we are to do a good job), it is to be entered into a computer system, the quality (in <br />maintaining appropriate tags and avoiding undesired losses of data, for instance) of the data <br />management system involved deserves careful attention. Indeed, the whole plan of data <br />management requires careful thought before data collection is begun, and a careful re- <br />examination at suitable intervals. <br /> <br />'" cost and value * <br /> <br />To improve data quality will increase costs. Will the return be worth it? Poor data can, <br />and has in the past, made the results of experiments nearly useless. Under such circumstances <br />nearly 100% of the experiments' costs were wasted. In our judgment it is likely to be <br />worthwhile to increase the cost of individual experiments by up to 20% or 25% in order to <br />assure quality data, even if, as is almost certain, this causes a corresponding reduction in the <br />rate at which experiments can be conducted. Good data is worthwhile, poor data is not. <br /> <br />3. Structure of Experimentation <br /> <br />* purposes of exploratory phases * <br /> <br />The distinction between exploratory and confirmatory phases is a recent one in the field of <br />weather modification. There does not yet seem to have been time for an adequate understand- <br />ing to develop of the breadth of purposes appropriate to an exploratory phase; so far, an <br />exploratory phase seems only to have been thought of as an earlier version of the confirmatory <br />phase, e.g., one where it is appropriate to look for more restricted situations where seeding will <br />be more rewarding. This is an important end, fully worth careful distinction of exploratory <br />from confirmatory; it is not the only purpose that should be recognized. <br /> <br />As suggested above, one important aspect of exploratory phases may be learning how to <br />approximate expert judgments by objective criteria. <br /> <br />Another important purpose can -- and should -- be learning how to better measure the <br />effects to be studied. This might involve the development of a taxonomy of storms, as seen in <br />the area, or the identification of better covariates (better concomitant observations) or of better <br />ways to use either new or old covariates. <br /> <br />If our aim is reliable confirmation, as soon as' feasible, it is just as important, in such a <br />difficult area as weather modification, to learn how to measure better as it is to learn how to <br />pick favorable situations in which to attempt confirmation. <br /> <br />* exploration by separation * <br /> <br />The main step in the exploratory, after-the-fact analysis of weather modification experi- <br />ments based on seeding is referred to by many meteorologists as "stratification"; statisticians <br />might prefer to speak of "categorization"; philosophers or historians of science would presum- <br />ably have their own preference. We will call it "separation". Whatever the term, the process <br /> <br />'SUCh policies ought, if adopted, help to make both blatant and useless such reporting practices as saying only <br />"it is unlikely that seeding reduced hail by as much as 65%" when one could equally well add "or increased <br />it by as much as 300%". <br />