WMOD00464

• Title: The Management of Weather Resources - Volume II
• Prepared For: The Weather Modification Advisory Board
• Date: 6/30/1978
• Weather Modification - Doc Type: Report

- vi -

D. THE FUTURE ....................................................................................................D-l

15. The immediate future.................................................................................D-l

OJR blocking................................................................................... ..D-I
re-randomization and two-stage randomization .................................D-l
limitation of epochs of evaluation .....................................................D-2
remote effects and control areas ........................................................D-2
near-by operations........................................................................... ..D-2
operational simulations and regional forecasts...................................D-3
use of many covariates.......................................................................D-3
access to past data................................................... .......................... .D-3

16. Immediate development ..................... ........................................................D-3
better predictors.............................................................................. ...D-3
better standards of indifference .......... ...................... .............. ......... ..D-3
more about re-randomization ............................................................D-4
robust resistant summaries........................................ ............. .......... .D-4

17. The future ..................................................................................................D-4

~PPENDIX: more detail aboi.i des'igriandanalysiSj *

E. ISSUES OF DESIGN ...........................................................................................E-I

18. Target choices................... ....................... .......................... ......... ........... .....E-I
focusing studies sharply..... ....................................... .... .................... ..E-I
scheduled evaluation............................................................... ......... ..E-2

remote effects.................................................................................... .E-3

covariates........................................................................................... .E- 2

floating targets... ......... ............... ..... ............... .......... ... ........... ........... ..E-3
-- . --------..,
19. CFormal.<!esig~.'0................................................................. ........... ........ .....E-3

crossing over ........................ .................................... ............ ............ ..E-3

experimental units....................................................... ............ ......... ..E-4

fraction seeded.................................................... ................. ............. .E-4
who should be "blind" ......................................................................E-4

20. Maintaining blindness and avoiding alternation while blocking ..................E-4
broken blocks......... ....................... ........... ..... ............... ........ ........ ......E-6

avoiding over-alternation...... .......... ......... ............ ....... ..... ................. ..E-6

mixed suitability............................................................................... ..E-9
OJR blocking................................................................................. ...E-I 0
less thorough approaches..................................................................E-Il
21. Operational questions.......................... ......... ........................ .......... ......... ..E-14

quality data............................... ................ ........ ............ ................... .E-14
operational simulations............ ....................................................... ..E-14
background studies....................... ........... ......... ......... .............. ....... ..E-14
F. FUNDAMENT ALS OF CONFIRMA TION.........................................................F-l

22. ,l}nlikely ,events. ..--:.. ... ........ ........... ....... ..... ..... ... ...... ............. ......... ... ......... ....F-I

23. Randomization........ ........ ........... ....... ........ .......... .................. ........ ........... ...F-l
a technical point ...~.. ......... ......... ................... ..... ...... .............. ........... ..F-3

24. Zero average effect............ ......... ............ ......... ............. ...... ........... ........... ...F-4

25. Parametrized models........ ............. ....... .......................... ..... ........... ......... ....F-4

26. Robust/resistant techniques ................. ..................... ........... ....... ............... .F-6

27. Confidence statements...... ................. .............. ..... .......... ..... ....... .................F-6

"I