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<br />L-. <br /> <br />7 <br /> <br />/.- ". ". ~...........\,,\.1- " <br />5 ,,~ . <br />/ .-...... "- ./ <br />.; /i~---'-" . \~ORA(;E T:\:\K{~ <br />. : r '...r--... ~ ______ <br />. ,I I S~ 5 -' <br />((\ I/i ~ /... <br />. ;\ 0~'/ "-. '- <br /> <br />.:\ /, - <br /> <br />\. ~ '(S :, ~~./: ///'-- -"", <br />: ~...._-<::---",,-----,:~.-- <br />.... -.........'" <br /> <br />.......... <br /> <br /> <br />~~.. <br /> <br />S '__ <br /> <br />, <br />"" <br />"'" <br /> <br /> <br />s <br /> <br />, <br />, <br />S/ <br /> <br />--. ...' <br /> <br />/./ <br /> <br />Contaminant Plume Probability Map (Risk Assessment) <br /> <br />s <br /> <br />Figure 4. A risk assessment map of the contaminants reaching specified zones over a given <br />time interval at a concentration level of 1 p/m is based on the results of contaminant transport <br />models through a number of alternative descriptions of the subsurface similar to those de- <br />scribed in figures 1 and 2. This map is a composite of model results; for example, a location <br />defined as having a 50 percent probability of exceeding the 1 p/m concentration level would <br />have exceeded 1 p/m in half the simulations modeled (not exceeded in the remaining half). <br />This analysis provides the modeler with a measure of risk in evaluating where the contaminant <br />will travel. <br /> <br />. Simulates ground-water flow and con- <br />taminant transport. <br />. Produces an uncertainty distribution for <br />contaminant concentration as a function <br />of space and time. <br />. Produces probability maps of parameters <br />of interest. <br />. Produces graphical visualizations of pa- <br />rameter distributions, models, and results <br />that aid the user in gaining a complete <br />understanding of the analysis to apply it <br />effectively. <br /> <br />There also will be graphical software to <br />support the program. <br /> <br />The program development has been un- <br />derway for three years and is scheduled for <br />completion in October 1994. The final <br />product will be the public domain soft- <br />ware, UNCERT. This UNIX-based <br />software will operate on most microcom- <br />puter work stations. Ground-water <br />specialists in Reclamation's Resource Man- <br />agement group will use this software for <br />regional ground water and contaminant <br />transport studies. Technology transfer ef- <br />forts have been performed and will <br />continue throughout the project. Of particu- <br />lar note are technical exchanges that have <br />been presented at the International Ground <br />Water Modeling Center the Colorado <br />School of Mines. For technology exchange <br />references and project information, contact <br />Jeff Farrar at (303)-236-6081 . . . . <br />