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<br />additional reservoirs and pipelines are built; <br /> <br />and <br /> <br />demand for other uses inceases no faster than <br />the States' high growth rate projections; <br /> <br />and <br /> <br />average virgin flows of the Colorado River do <br />not decrease below the 1930-74 average (13.8 <br />million acre-ft/yr). <br /> <br />Otherwise, surface water supplies would not be <br />adequate for this level of production unless <br />other uses were curtailed, interstate and <br />international delivery obligations as pre- <br />sently interpreted by the Government were not <br />met, or other sources of water were developed. <br />On the other hand, if the reservoirs and pipe- <br />lines are built, flows do not decrease, and <br />the region develops at a medium rate (which <br />the States regard as more likely), there <br />should be sufficient surplus water to support <br />an industry of over 2 million bbl/d through <br />2000. <br /> <br />In the longer term, surface water may not be <br />adequate to sustain growth; surplus water <br />availability is much less assured after 2000. <br />If the river's flows do not decrease, and if a <br />low growth rate previals, demand will exceed <br />supply by 2027 even without an oil shale <br />industry. With a medium growth rate, the <br />surplus will disapppear by 2013. A high <br />growth rate will consume the surplus by 2007, <br />again without any oil shale development. This <br />is a potentially serious problem for the <br />region, and its implications for oil shale <br />development are controversial. On the one <br />hand it is argued that there is no surplus <br />surface water and this should preclude the <br />establishment of an industry. On the other <br />hand, it maintained that the facilities in a <br />major industry could function for much of <br />their economic lifetimes without significantly <br />interfering with other users, and in any case <br />would use relatively little water. (A <br />I-million-bbl/d industry would accelerate the <br />point of critical water shortage by about 3 <br />years if only surface water were used.) <br /> <br />u.s. OTA "Assessment of Oil Shale <br />Technologies", June, 1980, at 359. <br /> <br />-8- <br /> <br />~. <br />" <br />