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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:38:53 PM
Creation date
4/16/2008 11:11:18 AM
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Template:
Weather Modification
Title
Winter Cloud Seeding Potential on the Mogollon Rim - Final Report
Date
1/1/1989
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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<br />during their beginning and ending portions, usually associated with shallow clouds. An abundance of cloud <br />liquid water was sometimes found during the middle portions as well, again often with shallow clouds. But <br />important exceptions existed when cloud liquid water coexisted with moderate to heavy snowfall rates. Such <br />cases had strong winds that apparently produced significant uplift over the mountain barrier, resulting in <br />production of liquid water condensate at rates in excess of natural conversion to snowfall. <br /> <br />Examination of cloud top observations by radar revealed that more than half of all 1987 hours with cloud <br />liquid water were with shallow clouds extending no more than 2.5 kilometers above the Happy Jack site. But <br />such clouds produced only 12 percent of the total precipitation during the field program. This suggests these <br />clouds may be the best candidates for seeding. <br /> <br />Considerable temporal variability in cloud liquid water amount was usually seen throughout the course of <br />each storm. Time histories indicated rapid changes from periods with abundant cloud liquid water and little <br />or no precipitation, indicating inefficient clouds, to very efficient precipitation producing clouds. Thus entire <br />storm episodes cannot be thought of as simply seedable or nonseedable. Rather, the seeding potential of <br />most storms varies considerably over relatively short time periods (hours) with portions appearing seedable <br />and other portions appearing naturally quite efficient at producing precipitation. Further, while some <br />apparently seedable (or nonseedable) periods last for several hours, others may be very brief. These <br />temporal observations are based on radiometer measurements above a single site. Aircraft sampling revealed <br />pronounced spatial variations of cloud liquid water as well. <br /> <br />It is important that these results be incorporated into planning of future seeding strategies. It will be very <br />difficult, and often impractical, to rapidly change the seeding treatment in response to the short-term changes <br />in seed ability observed during most storm episodes. The only practical approach may be to seed throughout <br />entire storm episodes, assuming that seeding during naturally efficient periods results in negligible reduction <br />in snowfall. Some winter seeding projects in the western mountains of the United States have suggested this <br />hypothesis is valid, but it should be tested in Arizona prior to operational seeding of entire storm periods. <br /> <br />For the two-season data set, cloud liquid water was more commonly associated with stratiform clouds than <br />convective clouds. However, because the difference was not great, both cloud types are important for cloud <br />seeding potential. Most of the convection was embedded in general cloud layers and rather weak as <br />indicatyd by visual observations and aircraft measurements of limited liquid water amounts. More vigorous <br />convection was sometimes apparent, and occasionally thunder was heard. <br /> <br />Isolated towering cumulus clouds occurred on some days, but their contribution to the radiometer-observed <br />cloud liquid water was limited. In-depth analysis incorporating all available surface and aircraft data <br />suggested that isolated convective clouds offer little winter seeding potential over the Mogollon Rim. <br /> <br />The presence of cloud liquid water and occurrence of precipitation were quite dependent upon wind direction <br />at both field locations. Southwesterly flow was most important at Happy Jack with northeasterly flow also <br />significant. Westerly flow dominated the cloud liquid water and precipitation periods at Hannagan Meadow. <br />In all these cases, the winds are generally perpendicular to the mountain barrier, thereby maximizing uplift of <br />moist air and the resulting condensation into cloud droplets that was sometimes followed by snowfall. <br /> <br />IV <br />
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