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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:37:27 PM
Creation date
4/16/2008 10:37:05 AM
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Template:
Weather Modification
Title
Weather Modification Glossary
Prepared By
A. S. Dennis
Date
1/1/1987
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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<br />III. RESULTS OF CLOUD SEEDING TO MODIFY PRECIPITATION 611 <br /> <br />it was not possible to evaluate accurately opera- <br />tional projects that had been carried out over flat <br />regions of the United States because of lack of <br />sufficiently good controls. <br />Most information on the results of convective <br />cloud seeding has come from randomized exper- <br />iments. Experiments with dry ice and AgI have <br />been carried out in many countries, including <br />Australia, Canada, the United States, and the <br />Soviet Union. The experiments taken together <br />have shown beyond any reasonable doubt that <br />certain cumulus clouds exist which can be in- <br />duced to yield precipitation by seeding with gla- <br />ciogenic agents, but which would not precipitate <br />otherwise, and that some precipitating convec- <br />tive clouds yield more rain when seeded than <br />they would naturally. The important question <br />remains, however, as to whether these increases <br />from individual clouds actually result in rainfall <br />increases on the ground or whether they are <br />compensated by decreases in rainfall from other <br />clouds. <br />The most widely accepted positive results <br />from the seeding of convective clouds have <br />come from Israel. Following 10 yr of random- <br />ized experiments, Israeli scientists concluded <br />that the effects of silver iodide seeding from air- <br />craft upon cumulus moving inland from the <br />Mediterranean Sea during winter were positive <br />and economically important. Various analyses <br />have indicated increases in seasonal precipita- <br />tion ranging from 10 to more than 20%, with the <br />largest indicated increases occurring in the mid- <br />dle of predesignated target areas in northern Is- <br />rael. The clouds treated are relatively small, <br />with cloud base temperatures of about + 50C <br />and cloud top temperatures seldom colder than <br />- 30oC. There is some evidence that maximum <br />effects occur on days when the median cloud top <br />temperature is in the vicinity of -IS to - 20oC. <br />Possible explanations for this finding have been <br />sought in terms of crystal habits and the proba- <br />bility of rapid riming of dendritic (star-shaped) <br />crystals, which tend to predominate at about the <br />-150C level. <br />Randomized experiments on area-wide pre- <br />cipitation conducted in the United States in- <br />clude projects in Arizona, Florida (FACE), Mis- <br />souri (Whitetop), North Dakota, and South <br />Dakota (Rapid Project). The Arizona projects, <br />conducted by the University of Arizona between <br />1956 and 1964, produced no definite answers <br />about rainfall on the ground. The Florida Area <br />Cumulus Experiment (FACE) was intended to <br />produce area-wide rainfall increases through dy- <br /> <br />namic effects, but also proved to be inconclu- <br />sive. The other projects provided evidence of <br />both rainfall increases and decreases, the appar- <br />ent increases occurring in the Dakotas and, pos- <br />sibly, in Missouri on days with moderate con- <br />vectivf: activity, and the apparent decreases in <br />Missouri and, possibly, in South Dakota on days <br />with intense convective activity. The indicated <br />effects are substantial. Increases of 100% or <br />more on days with moderate convection are in- <br />dicated, but on Whitetop such effects were over- <br />whelmed by decreases on days with storms hav- <br />ing tops above about 12 km. <br />The results of the randomized experiments <br />just quoted and of certain others argue against <br />indiscriminate seeding of large convective <br />storms to increase rainfall. It is now generally <br />agreed that it is not productive to seed very tall <br />cumulonimbus clouds, which already possess <br />strong updrafts and often eject large amounts of <br />condensate into their anvils. Instead, most <br />weather modification operators favor treatment <br />of cumulus congestus clouds before or just after <br />they reach the precipitation state in an attempt <br />to increase their precipitation efficiency, and <br />possibly, stimulate further cloud growth by dy- <br />namic effects. <br />The microphysical effects of glaciogenic seed- <br />ing on supercooled convective clouds were ex- <br />plored in detail in southeastern Montana dur- <br />ing the High Plains Cooperative Program <br />(HIPLEX). The HIPLEX-I randomized experi- <br />ment was conducted there in 1979-1980. The <br />treatment consisted of dropping dry ice into the <br />top of a cloud at the rate of 0.1 kg/km during a <br />single aircraft pass over the cloud. The results <br />clearly showed the formation of ice crystal cur- <br />tains within 2 min and their subsequent spread- <br />ing. Some of the artificially produced ice crys- <br />tals grew to about 500 /-tm in diameter and began <br />to aggregate. This behavior differed from that <br />typical of natural ice particles in such clouds, <br />which is to grow into graupel particles by rim- <br />ing. While the small clouds treated had such <br />short lifetimes that both the natural and artificial <br />precipitation processes were cut short in most of <br />them, the HIPLEX-l experiment confirmed that <br />precipitation can be initiated by glaciogenic <br />seeding. It also yielded quantitative data on ice <br />crystal yields and the rate at which the artificial <br />precipitation process proceeds. Recently re- <br />ported dry ice seeding trials on winter convec- <br />tive clouds on SCPP also point to aggregation of <br />ice crystals as an important precipitation mecha- <br />nism in seeded clouds. <br />
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