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<br />3.2.2 <br /> <br />Seasonal Predictions <br /> <br />. Research, based on recent advances in understanding <br />of factors affecting the general circulation of the atmosphere, and on <br />statistical analysis of past. storm sequences as associated air mass <br />conditions, should be conducted to specify procedures by which a winter <br />can be identified as one in which seeding should be attempted. The <br />objective of the statistical analysis should not be to develop direct <br />predictive methods to establish the probable precipitation for the rest <br />of the season, an approach that has repeatedly been shown not to work. <br />It can show, however, how often in the past n1.istakes would have been <br />made which led to misidentification of a year suitable for seeding. The <br />objective should be to determine, on the basis of past experience, how <br />early in the season a decision about the desirability of seeding can be <br />made given the existing precipitation situation to date. More precisely, <br />what are the probabilities, -under various alternative decision rules, <br />of artificially inducing a snowpack of given incremental levels above <br />normal? <br /> <br />. A thorough analysis should be made during the pilot <br />project period to determine the extent to which seeding in above normal <br />years will actually alleviate deficits resulting from a preceding dry <br />year. <br /> <br />. A thorough analys is should be made of the meteorological <br />basis for decisions about early-season seeding, and of the hydrologic and <br />economic consequences of a policy that would inhibit seeding early in <br />the winter season. Such an analysis should be made by an independent <br />organization with no potential vested interest in an operational progr am. <br /> <br />The problem of early season seeding potential depends on the <br />ability to forecast general precipitation trends several months in the future. <br />Such a capability is not yet available. The other option of studying historical <br />records, essentially begs the-question. Twenty or forty years of data could <br />be analyzed, and a set of hypotheses could be formulated. There is no assurance <br />, <br />however, that the coming winter will conform to these hypotheses. The <br />alternative which has been adopted in the design is to use the reservoir operating <br />levels and spill rules as a basis for .determining whether additional precipitation <br /> <br />9 <br /> <br /> <br />, -.,.",.,..... <br />