WMOD00386

• Title: What Do We Need in Weather Modification?
• Date: 3/13/1978
• Weather Modification - Doc Type: Report

868

JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY

VOLUME 17

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FIG. 1. The hydro-illogical cycle.

perpetuating the hydro-illogical cycle (see Fig. 1).
This is encouraged, in part, by the quick reaction
time and relatively low cost of weather modification
operations in contrast to other potential drought-relief
measures.
This is, of course, a "no win" situation for weather
modification. The use of weather modification during
drought periods is generally limited by less frequent
opportunities. If all of these opportunities were ex-
ploited and if the most optimistic estimates of weather
modification effectiveness were realized, the drought,
while somewhat mitigated, would still persist and the
effort would be viewed as falling short of expectations,
if not a failure. The short history of weather modifica-
tion contains ample evidence of the consequences of
such apparent failures-a loss of public confidence in
the claims and expectancies of weather modification.
Precipitation management should be promoted as
a 'water resource tool to be managed on a year-round
basis as any other component of the total water
management system. Weather modification should be
used to recharge and augment water supplies whenever
the opportunities arise and the situation warrants.
It should be used in concert with modern agricultural
and soil conservation practices to maximize much
needed agricultural production during both adequate
and rain-short years. It should be considered for ap-
plication at any stage of crop or forage growth when
additional water would be beneficial and also during

vegetatively dormant periods to increase the moisture
of the soil in preparation for planting.
Apathy in the hydro-illogical cycle must be replaced
by constructive planning and preparation for drought
to lessen its impact. Weather modification can and
should play an important role in such a water man-
agement system.

b: Research and/or operations?
The lack of credibility for weather modification is
contributed to and aggravated by the diverse opinions
of scientists on the state-of-the-art of weather modi-
fication. The strong proponents, mainly commercial
operators, believe that certain areas of weather modi-
fication are fully operational technologies capable of
producing considerable economic benefits and that
further research is a threat to their adoption. The
cautious optimists believe that promising results 4ave
been obtained in some cases but further experimenta-
tion should be required before operational programs
ar~ allowed to proceed. Some of the research scientists
in this group also believe that premature adoption
of operational programs is a threat to the continued
research required to develop and verify weather
modification techniques. Still others believe that the
effects of weather modification may be so far-reaching
that it is too risky to even experiment in the atmo-
sphere until all of the effects are identified and
evaluated.

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