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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:36:54 PM
Creation date
4/16/2008 10:28:34 AM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Weather Modification
Contract/Permit #
0-07-81-V0144
Project Name
South West Drought Project
Title
Operational Weather Modification - Volume I: A Seminar Series
Date
9/1/1981
State
OK
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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<br />-22- <br /> <br />An examination of the "watch" information in conjunction <br />with seeding opportunity days indicates that for the 7-year <br />period, there averaged only 3.1 June wet days without any <br />total area watch. There would by 7.7 potential operational <br />days per month with all watches (DDC area) suspension cri- <br />terion in effect. The tornado watches (DDC area) criterion <br />would allow 11.3 potential operational days. <br />The results of the preceding section have demonstrated <br />that the severe weather watch is not well suited for suspen- <br />sion criteria. The large number of severe thunderstorm and <br />tornado watches remove many potential seeding opportunities, <br />thereby placing the. effectiveness of commercial seeding pro- <br />grams in jeopardy and increasing the length of scientific <br />seeding experiments. Because of the high failure rate for <br />the tornado watch, operations conducted on days for which no <br />watch has been issued leave program operators open to the <br />charge that seeding increased the potential for tornadoes on <br />days that severe weather was not expected. <br />But is there a better data source for suspension criteria <br />than the severe weather watch? A seeding project may provide <br />its own severe weather data. This approach is attractive be- <br />cause project forecasters can concentrate their efforts toward <br />weather events over the operational area. However, the NSSFC <br />has the benefit of years of forecast experience, and the per- <br />formance of the tornado watch should be credited mostly to <br />the complexity of the tornado forecast problem. <br />Perhaps suspension criteria developed from severe weather <br />warnings issued by local Weather Service offices would be use- <br />ful. These warnings are usually issued when severe weather <br />has already been reported by the public or when storms approach <br />severe limits as determined by radar. If seeding operations <br />are being conducted when the warnings are given, even though <br />operations are terminated, the continuing dynamical and micro- <br />physical interactions of seeding material with nearby storms <br />could lead to implications of property damage liability. <br /> <br />? <br />
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