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U .8. aims to wring out storm clouds ~y, J.., 29, 1984 First in a series By Daniel C. Carson Staff Writer SACRAMENTO - In what sounds like a plot for a science-fiction novel, the Reagan administration is pushing ahead with plans for massive cloud- seeding operations in the Colorado River basin that could ease or pre- vent future water shortages in Cali- fornia and six other Western states. Some government officials and scientific experts are skeptical about man's ability to so dramatically alter the weather, while other con- cerns are being voiced about the legal and environmental ramifica- tions if the technology does indeed work as claimed. ~onetheless, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has launched an ag- gressive effort to line up $88 million to finance the eight-year experiment 'in weather modification. officially dubbed the Colorado River Enhanced Snowpack Test, or CREST. They minimize the risks and say the payoff in water and power in the long run will be many times the ini- tial investment. California water and power agen- cy representatives will be given a briefing on the latest administration proposals this week. The key issue i! how the cost for the program will be shared between the ~tates and the federal government: ;J' . The bureau pro~ to use air- craft and ground stations to "seed" moisture-laden cJou~ during winter months to produce' heavier snowfall than would o~ occur at two Colorado mountaJD ranges. In the spring, the theory goes, the melted snow woul<f flO'iJ in~ tbe Colorado River system 01 reservoirs to meet the needs of Industry, agJ iculture and fast-growing llrban areas of the West. "AcCOrding to bureau officials, CREST could be prod,ucing an extra 410,000 acre-feet of water each year begimdn. in November 1987. (An ac:re-foot equals 326,000 gallons.) ..About 310,000 acre-feet of that bu woaId flow into the Colorado' River basin where, under the right combination of circumstances, much of it could be diverted into canals Iel'Ving the Metropolitan WaterDI. ~ trict. of. Southern California (MWD) : and other California water agencies. : MWD is San Diego County's maiD ; water supplier. ; If tbe federal plan is successful,' ; the additional water would come at a . feritical time for California. :' Beginning In December 1985, a $S . lri1I1on system of channels will begin : diverting 100,000 to 400,000 more acre-feet annually from the Colorado . River to Arizona users. Because of a 1* U.s. Supreme Court decision, Ca1ifornia'. legal apportionment of Colorado River water will be re- dueed by 700,000 acre-feet annually to 4.4 million during the same Deriod. Gov. DeukmejiaD bu been" trying . to secure passage of legislation to di- vert 630,000 acre-feet of additional water from Northern California to the southern part of the state to help offset the elpected cutback. : Dennis B. Underwood, executive secretary of the Colorado River Board of California, said the experi- mental nature of CREST means it is DOt a substitute for the governor's through-Delta project. However. Underwood, whose state . agency hu passed a resolution en- dorsing the weather-modification project, said additional water pro- duced by CREST "would be very beneficial to the state during a criti- cal time of supply and demand. It : could be almost fully utilized by Cali. fornia. " California will be vulnerable to shortages in the late 19808 as Arizona starts to divert more water from the river for its new project. Underwood said. The state will remain vulnera- ble, he indicated, until its own water projects to transfer water southward are completed. During the Dear-term. California may be the only state in a position to take full advantage of the surplus water created by CREST, said Und- erwood. The main focus of CREST is ob- taining a greater long-range water supply for the West. If CREST is pro- ductive during its eight-year li. fespan, say the bureau's experts, the next logical step would be full-scale cloud-seeding in as many as five Western states. California would not be one of the states. Full-scale seeding, they predict, (could mean production of an extra L 2.26 million acre feet of runoff annu- ally. Of that sum, about 1.73 million ,acre-feet would fiow into the Colora- :00 River basin, possibly providing 'Surplus water for Southern Califor- :Iilil but at the very least protecting ,MWD from being shorted on its legal apportionmenL Even after the Arizona-caused re- ~ducttOD in its Colorado River appor- _ tioament, California and the MWD are in danger of losing still more water early iiI the 199Os, Underwood said. This, be said, is primarily be- cause other Sunbelt states OIl the Col- orado River are growiDg IDd devel- oping and will Deed more water In the future. . AgreemeIIts IDd treaties lOW. In .. place will eventually ObligaW' tIie - federal gOverDmeDt. to provide 17.5 mil110D acre-feet of Colorado River water eam ~ to i v.nous U.s. states and also to Memo. TIle prob- lem is tbat In normal years, the river can be counted on to provide be- tween 14 milliooand 15 mUllon acre- feeL " . . The effects of the shortage will not be felt Immediately because the fed- erally run system of dams and reser- voin, bu a. storage capacity of 60 millicm' at:re-feel The problem is real, aceording to the bureau, be- cause the river is the main source of . water supply for half the population .of 11 Western states. I __ '"'l1Iat . tile loq-term problem ~tb the river," said Underwood. "The apportionments to the states are greater than the IODg-term annu- al yield out of the river system." Large-scale cloud-seeding efforts, he said, "would shore up California's basic apportionment. Otherwise. we'd have a shortage problem and draw down storage. Sooner or later, you would have to start shorting states." Jerry K1azura, acting branch chief in the bureau's Denver office that is the headquarters for CREST, said the experiment is expected to cost $11 million a year. The payoff in water and power during that eight- year penod is valued at $11.9 million a year by bureau economists - meaning that the project would vir- tually break even. The expected next step, full-scale cloud-seeding in the Colorado River basin, would cost a bit more - be- tween $12 million and $16 million a year, according to the bureau. The annual cost would be only slightly greater than for CREST because de- tailed scientific measurement and study would no longer be necessary. Klazura said the payoff from full- scale weather modification, well be- yond CREST, would be almost $140 million annually. That cost-benefit ratio compares highly favorably with the alternatives. he said. Bareau offi- cials assume that some agreement will be worked out for dividing up the additional water generated by cloud-seeding, The alternatives studied by the bu- reau included channels to divert water from either the Mississippi or Columbia rivers and massive desa- linization plants. All were found too costly or too controversial. CREST bu been in the planning stages for four years. Lew Moore, senior staff assistant in the bureau's Washington, D.C., o(fice, confirmed that the new initiative resulted from a change of policy made possible by the resignation of James Watt u sec- retary of the Interior. Watt, according to both Moore and Underwood, had insisted duriDg his tenure that CREST be funded entire- ly by Western states benefiting from the Colorado River system, without any direct financial contribution . from the federal governmenL State governments balked. insist- ing the federal government should bear at least some of the cost be- cause it was the United States, not I them, that guaranteed Mexico at least 1.S million acre-feet each year from the Colorado River in a 1944 treaty. Interest in CREST flagged until after William P. Clark. a Californian. took over as Interior secretary. Moore said a Clark aide early this year authorized bureau officials to explore the idea of a cost-sharing deal with the states. Within just the last few weeks, the bureau has commenced that negotia- tion process with a proposal for a roughly 50-50 split between federal and state authorities. The exact split among the states, and the mecba- nism for raising the states' share. is also being discussed. TOMORROW: TIle costroversy over cloud seediDg.