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34 CLOUD SEEDING The opinion leaders (part of early adopters) shape the attitudes and actions of the early majority toward any innovation, including cloud seeding. This is why the opinion of community influentials is so impor- tant in the social acceptance of cloud seeding projects. 2.4.3 Assessing Public Attitudes The perceived value of cloud seeding, derived by weighing both poten- tial opportunities and adverse effects, incorporates considerations be- yond simple economics and the efficacy of the technology. The issues surrounding cloud seeding may reach deeply into social relationships and even into aesthetic and spiritual values, including concern about the risk of human intervention in weather processes. Fear of disasters that might be perceived as potential effects of cloud seeding, such as flooding, avalanches, or ecological calamities that might carry property and social losses, also shapes attitudes (Sewell 1966; Larson 1973; Farhar 1977; Den- nis 1980). There are, and most likely always will be, those who are convinced that it is possible to modify the weather, and those who believe it is a fraud (Sewell 1966), irrespective of the scientific basis. Scientifically conducted surveys can measure the distribution in fac- tors that affect the social acceptability of projects. Some perspective on this is provided by examining the range of social factors that can come into play. Attitudes toward weather modification in South Dakota, Colo- rado, and Florida were measured using survey items that measured (i) favorability to the technology, (ii) beliefs that cloud seeding was effective in increasing precipitation and suppressing hail, (iii) concern about risk, (iv) credibility of sources of information about the cloud seeding pro- gram, (v) knowledge about the program, (vi) evaluation of the cloud seeding program, and (vii) preferred decision making and funding sources (Farhar 1975a,b). Belief in the effectiveness of the technology, favorable attitudes toward it and toward science, and low concern about risk were statistically most highly correlated with positive assessment of operational seeding pro- grams. Belief in efficacy emerged in this and other research as the most powerful predictor of societal program evaluation. Information on the efficacy and secondary effects of cloud seeding is commonly and appro- priately sought from the technical experts, but scientists themselves have divergent views on the efficacy (Farhar and Clark 1978). Although this is the nature of scientific probing, public disillusionment can be fueled by scientists who disagree in public about the facts and the uncertainties (Lambright 1972; Changnon and Lambright 1990). Conversely, problems may occur if operators do not openly state the uncertainties. Also, diffi- culties can arise when scientists who have not kept abreast of cloud seeding research express uninformed, "expert" opinions based on gener- alizations derived a decade or two ago. The South Dakota experience with cloud seeding is significant because the first state-sponsored weather modification program began there in