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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:33:47 PM
Creation date
4/11/2008 3:44:10 PM
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Weather Modification
Title
Augmentation of Rainfall from Summer Cumulus Clouds
Date
2/5/1983
Weather Modification - Doc Type
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<br />'1 <br /> <br />5 <br /> <br />ice crystals by deposition and riming into graupel, and fallout of the graupel <br />particles (perhaps already melted into raindrops) from cloud base (Silver- <br />man, 1980). This physical hypothesis, which involves a specific version of <br />the Bergeron Process, was adopted on the basis of several years' work which <br />showed that Montana clouds did not have characteristics generally considered <br />conducive to success in hygroscopic seeding (e.g., Cotton, 1982), and that <br />dry ice was a satisfactory seeding agent for forming ice crystals in them at <br />temperatures between -100C and OOC (Holroyd et al., 1978). <br />The experimental unit for HIPLEX-1 was a single cumulus congestus <br />cloud. The seeding agent was dry ice, which was dropped from a jet aircraft <br />at a rate of 0.1 kg km-1 on passes through the cloud near the -100 C level, or <br />at cloud top, whichever was lower (in elevation). <br />Test clouds were selected principally on the basis of data collected on a <br />pretreatment pass by a King Air instrumented aircraft operating near the <br />- 80 C level. The target clouds are classified as types AI, A2 and B (Silverman, <br />1980). The differences in behavior between seeded and unseeded clouds <br />were expected to be most readily detected in type Al clouds and hardest to <br />detect in type B clouds. Type Al clouds were considered unlikely to precipi- <br />tate naturally because of warm tops (- 6 to -120C) and a presumed absence <br />of ice multiplication processes. Type A2 clouds were clouds in the same <br />temperature range but in which an ice multiplication process was considered <br />likely to occur. Type B clouds were considered likely to precipitate natural- <br />ly, with or without ice multiplication, due to their relatively cold tops (most- <br />ly -12 to - 200 C). Type B clouds were selected for experimentation only <br />when no suitable type A clouds were available. The experimental unit was <br />limited in time to 40 min, as observations and numerical modeling results <br />have indicated that the hypothesized physical process should take place in <br />less than 40 min. Flight procedures were worked out to ensure proper <br />coordination between the seeding aircraft and the King Air instrumented <br />aircraft, which systematically worked downward from the - 80 C level to mo- <br />nitor the precipitation process. Details are given in 'The Design of HIPLEX- <br />l' (BuREC, 1979). <br />The statistical design of HIP LEX-1 included double-blind randomization, <br />the selection of ten primary response variables (Table I) to test the steps of <br />the physical hypothesis, and the development of new statistical methods <br />based on MRPP (multi-response permutation procedures) for testing for pos- <br />sible differences between seed and no-seed cases (Dennis et al., 1980). Simu- <br />lation experiments indicated 50 to 100 test cases would be required for con- <br />clusive results to be obtained. <br />Only 20 test cases were recorded during the 2 years, 1979 and 1980, that <br />HIPLEX-l was in the field. However, the experimental design permitted the <br />drawing of some useful conclusions from the truncated data set. <br />The following section, which summarizes present knowledge conceming <br />aspects of augmentation of rainfall from cumulus clouds, draws upon the re- <br />sults of HIPLEX in general and of HIPLEX-1 in particular. <br />
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