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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />This program would allow the earliest initiation of an operational <br />effort but would carry the highest risk of not yielding adequate evi- <br />dence of treatment effects. <br /> <br />Option 2 (seven-year program) <br /> <br />A seven-year demonstration program option, which includes five winters <br />of randomized seeding and three winters of physical studies <br />(one-winter overlap), is offered to enable assessment at a moderate <br />risk level of long-term treatment effects in precipitation. <br /> <br />Option 3 (lO-year program) <br /> <br />A 10-year demonstrati on program opt i Cin is presented to achi eve a <br />significantly lower risk level in long-term effects assessment with <br />precipitation as the response variable. Field studies and randomized <br />cloud seedi ng would be conducted over' four and seven wi nters, respec- <br />tively (one-winter overlap). The additional two winters of cloud <br />seeding would add approximately 50 cases for analyses, over an Option 2 <br />program. <br /> <br />Option 4 (12-year program) <br /> <br />A 12-year program employing streamflow as the response variable is <br />offered with estimated ri sk in long-term effects assessment i nter- <br />mediate to those of Options 2 and 3. Evaluation with streamflow pre- <br />sents additional factors such as watershed physical characteristics <br />that may lead to enhanced risk. Option 4 specifies physical studies <br />and randomized cloud seeding for 3 and 10 winters, respectively <br />(one-winter overlap). <br /> <br />While risk is lower in Options 3 and 4 the price paid is a long period <br />before operational seeding can take place. Affected parties will need to <br />select risk values reflecting their choice of level of assessment. They <br />must weigh funding availability and the urgency for additional water along <br />with risk. Based on their selections, the program type and length can be <br />specified for development of wintertime cloud seeding in Arizona. <br /> <br />10 <br />