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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:32:23 PM
Creation date
4/11/2008 3:38:50 PM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Weather Modification
Contract/Permit #
14-06-D-6467
Title
An Operational Adaptation Program for the Colorado River Basin
Prepared By
Lewis O. Grant, Chappell, Crow, Mielke Jr., Rasmussen, Shobe, Stockwell, Wykstra
Date
10/1/1969
State
CO
Country
United States
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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<br />winter season of 1964-65, and by Colorado <br />State University personnel during the winter <br />season of 1967-68. An atterr~pt was made to <br />have the appropriate ground-based seeding <br />generators running at all times v'.Then precipita- <br />tion was occurring or was imminent. <br /> <br />2. Sta tistical Evaluation Procedures <br />Three statistical methods that evaluate <br />differences in precipitation between seeded and non- <br />seeded periods have been discussed by Grant and <br />Mielke (1967) so only a brier synopsis is repeated <br />here. The first two methods apply nonparametric <br />procedures to all observations. The third method is <br />based on a parametric technique introduced by <br />Thorn (1957). <br /> <br />The rirst nonparametric technique <br />(NP1) employs a two-sample Wilcoxon test while the <br />second nonparametric procedure (NP2) utilizes a two- <br />sample sum of squared ranks test. The underlying <br />assumption in both techniqu es is that if seeding has <br />no effect on the amount of precipitation, then the <br />target precipitation for seeded and non-seeded days <br />represent observations rrom identical distributions. <br />When analyzed with controls the assumption is that <br />the difference between the control and target precipita- <br />tion for seeded and non-seeded days represents <br />obs ervations from identical distributions. <br /> <br />The parametric approach (PAR) <br />assumes that precipitation data may be approximated <br />by a gamma distribution. The raw data is trans- <br />formed into normalized data that is suitable for the <br />application of a simple regression analysis. The basic <br />inform8tion for both seeded and non-seeded periods <br />consists of non-zero paired observations (target and <br />control). The expectation or the resulting normalized <br />test statistic is taken in terms of the assumed under- <br />lying gamma distributed variables. Then a point <br />estimate of a scale change during the seeded period <br />with respect to the non-seeded period can be obtained. <br /> <br />The utilization of three different <br />methods to statistically evaluate the experimental <br />data has certain advantages for interpreting results. <br />The two-sample Wilcoxon test (NP1) gives equal <br />emphasis to all observations while the two-sample <br />sum of squared ranks test (NP2) places greater <br />emphasis on the larger precipitation amounts. The <br />nonparametric methods (NP1 and NP2) have the ad- <br />vantage of being applicable to all forms of data. <br />However, the parametric method (PAR) is seriously <br />deficient in bebg able to only cope with reduced data <br />amounts involvbe: days in which both target and <br />control precipitafion "amounts are not zero. <br /> <br />Analysis of the Climax and Wolf Creek <br />experiments is shown with and without the inclusion <br />of control precipita,tion in the computations. The <br />large variability in the experimental data combined <br />with the relatively small sample sizes resulting from <br />partitioning, make it impossible to derive tight <br />confidence intervals orscale estimators. In order to <br />supply some meaningful interpretation or the results, <br />the probability of the scale change bei!1g exceeded in <br />the same sense by chance (p-value) is included in the <br />final tabulat'ed surnrn.8..ries. <br /> <br />Results of three different and <br />independent experimental samples are depicted in the <br />summary tables of final results. Since the emphasis <br />in this paper is on the distribution of seeding effects <br />under specified meteorological criteria, a brief <br />description of the composition of these three sets of <br />independent data are given. <br /> <br />3. Basic Data <br /> <br />a. Climax I data sample (251 cases) <br />During the peri od 1960- 65 there were <br />283 experimental days defined for the Climax <br />experiment. Preliminary results of this entire <br />sample were previously discussed Orant and Mielke, <br />1967). Chappell (1967) in a rurther analysis of the <br />1960-65 Climax data found tln t several of the experi- <br />mental events had wind directions that could not bring <br />the seeding material toward the primary target area. <br />If only those experimental events that have 500 mb <br />wind directions between 210 degrees and 360 degrees <br />inclusive are considered (as originally defined for <br />the experiment), the sample reduces to 251'cases. <br /> <br />b. Climax II data sample (127 cases) <br />During the period 1965-68 there were <br />231 experimental days defined for the Climax experi- <br />ment. Five of these events were also found to have <br />500 mb wind flows outside the prescribed direction <br />interval, reducing the originaf sample to 226 cases. <br />Further investigation indicated that on 99 other experi- <br />mental days seeding from other activities close <br />upstream (100 miles or less) could have affected <br />either the primary target area or the control area. <br />Therefore, there are only 127 "clean" experimental <br />days available during this period for analysis with <br />controls. The overall variations 'Of seeding effects <br />with 500 mb temperatures for the. original samples <br />composed of 231 experimental days (Grant, et al. , <br />1969) is essentially duplicated by the "clean sample" <br />comprised of 127 days. <br /> <br />c. Wolf Creek I data sample (362 cases) <br />There were 362 days that met the <br />prescribed criteria for an experimental event at <br />Wolf Creek Pass during the four win!; er seasons from <br />1964-68. It should be mentioned that in this total <br />sample there are 59 designated seeded cases where <br />actually no seeding was conducted. These 59 cases <br />were heavily biased toward low precipitation amounts. <br />They have been retained in the seeded group since <br />there is no acceptable way to remove their counter- <br />part from the non-seeded events. It is likely that <br />seeding effects are being diluted by the retention of <br />these 59 cases in the total sample. <br /> <br />The results shown for the samples at <br />Climax are for two sensors located within a few <br />feet of one another at the High Altitude Observatory <br />of the University of Colorado, near the summit of <br />Fremont Pass. Consideration of elevation and <br />spatial variation of precipitation over a network of 65 <br />stations does not substantially alter the results <br />presented below (Mielke, et al. ,1969). The results <br />shown for the Wolf Creek I sample are based on <br />precipitation amounts recorded near the summit of <br />Wolf Creek Pass. This sensor is an 8 inch shielded <br /> <br />recordir:g t:;:pe g2.ge 2.S is one of the sensors in the <br /> <br />14 <br />
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