WMOD00277

• Contract/Permit #: 14-06-D-6467
• Title: An Operational Adaptation Program for the Colorado River Basin
• Prepared By: Lewis O. Grant, Chappell, Crow, Mielke Jr., Rasmussen, Shobe, Stockwell, Wykstra
• Date: 10/1/1969
• State: CO
• Country: United States
• Weather Modification - Doc Type: Report

area for an initial pilot project has been tentatively
designated by the Bureau of Reclamation. The initial
stage of the establishment of an observation network
is now in progress by Western Scientific Services,
Inc., under a direct contract from the Bureau of
Reclamation.

The primary emphasis in the design
preparation is concerned with the technical aspect of
the pilot project. This includes the definition of the
physical basis for the program, the establishment of
the methodology to be employed, and the formulation
of evaluation procedures for establishing the amount
of water added. For the program to have proper
perspective, many other aspects are also being

considered. These include variw s vital matters of
basin hydrology, together with economic, social, and
political considerations. The efforts this first year
have concentrated on background studies of the many
facets of the program. This first annual report
serves as are vie w 0 f the progress of this
work. These background studies have not yet been
incorporated into a fixed design f or the pilot program,
except for some phases of the program, such as
those dealing with the area selection am some of the basic
field observation requirements. Formalization of
operating and evaluation procedure will take place
during the coming year based largely on background
studies already completed or underway.

II. OBJECTIVES

A pilot program of weather modification
for the Colorado River Basin is clearly intended to
serve as a transition from experimental tc fully
applied programs. The detailed objectives of this
program have been stated in a number of forms.
Several different ways in which the objectives have
been stated are included here in an attempt to cover
the full scope of the objectives envisioned for the
program.

The objective of the design study for
an operational adaptation program for the Colorado
River Basin, as stated in the contract between the
Bureau of Reclamation and Colorado State University,
is: "The objective of this undertaking is to develop
the design for a pilot program of operational clrnd
seeding research' in the Colorado River Basin, to
add basic information to the sciences of cloud physics
and weather modificatiou, and advance technology
pertinent to the operational aspects of weather modi-
fication for increasing water supplies within the
Basin." This has been elaborated on by the Bureau of
Reclamation in the following description: "The main
objective of the Colorado River Basin pilot project is
to provide sou n d scientific engineering evaluation
of precipitation incr.eases over a large area by an
operation-type application of cloud seeding techniques
employed and criteria developed through the Climax,
Colorado, experiment. The' evaluation and analyses
of project data will also furnish a more detailed
climatology of natural precipitation occurrences over
mountainous areas, improved identification of
precipitation increase during different seedable
conditions and its distributions over large mountain
massives, and an accounting of costs involved. The
project will also afford an ilnportant opportunity for
assessing social-environmental problems associated
with weather mo dification operations and for apprais-
ing technical performance factors. These objectives
are oriented toward learning definite answers on
the technological factors and f e a sib i 1 i t Y
considerations involved in producing large quantities
of additional s t rea m f low in the Up per

Colorado River Basin. Studies of the associated
social and environmental considerations will be
made in conjunction with the pilot project to define
any problems and suggest means for resolving them.
Field experiments independent of the pilot project in
other areas of the Upper Basin and adjoining regions
will furnish additional climatological data and seed-
ing experiments to supplement the pilot project
findings" (Private correspondence from A.KalEn, 1969~

Pilot models or pilot programs serve
as a transition -from res earch and( or development to
applied programs and( or devices. The need for
further engineering and( or research usually becomes
apparent in development and( or ccnstruction cf such
pilot models. A pilot model for we8ther modUic8ti,on
requires such extensive efforts to evaluate that
research will in e v ita b 1 Y be incorporated. The
8uthors i.nt8rpr8t tn8ir onjf>dive as the design ofa-
pilot model of a field program of applied cloud seed-
, ing for increasing water supplies in the Colorado
River Basin based on contemporary knowledge.
Evaluation procedures for such a program must
include a reasonable estimate of the water produced
from the program at stated confidence levels and an
assessment of the technology employed. The
considerable costs and efforts involved in weather
modification field programs dictates that the design
also provide for maximizing the amount of informa-
tion for subsequently improving the procedures
employed.

The objective of the pilot project
studies might also be described as a field test of
weather modification within the Upper Colorado River
Basin using crit8:ri,a d8ve1oped in experimental
programs. When applied to a target area of a 1,000
to 3,000 square miles, this field test should
(1) provide with a specified confidence the number of
acre feet of water added, (2) establish the cost per
unit volume of the water added, and (3) provide
basic scientific and technological information that
can be used in upgrading subsequent programs.

2