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.. -4- In the light of present information, I believe that any person familiar with the matter here involved might ".ell raise questions as to nearly all of the items set forth in your analysis ~ Without attempting to pass final judgment, as that now is impossible, but in the spirit of a sincere attempt to comment upon your analysis, may I respectfully submit the following on the items, (listed as Items 1 - 2) inclusive) in the analysis? The paragraph numbers, given belm'f, correspond with the item numbers in your analysis. 1. This figure is fixed by Article III (a) of the Colorado River Compact of 1922. 2:. This figure is fixed by Article III (a) of the Upper Colorado River Basin Compact of 1948. It should be noted that the Bureau of Reclama- tion Report on the Colorado River, House DocUment 419, 80th Congress, 1st Session, (hereinafter referred to as Blue Book) gives the present depletion by Arizona in the Upper Basin (item designated as "San Juan" in Table CXX;r on page 186) as 10,200 acre-feet and the depletion Qy potential projects as 39,000, making a total ultimate ~epletion by Arizona of Upper Basin water in the amount of 49,200 acre-feet annually, 3. This is the Colorado share if one' assumes that through the con. struction of the riecessary hold~ver reservoirs the entire 7,500,000 acre- feet will be available for use in the Upper Basin and further assumes that Arizona ~dll use its entire share of 50,000 acre-feet. 4. This charges Colorado with 106,475 acre-feet of water annually because 0 f assumed shortages arising under the operation of the Mexican Water Treaty of 1944. Three serious criticisms may be made against this item, viz: (a) In your computation you use as the virgin Lee Ferry flow' the figure of 15,638,500 acre-feet which is taken from th~ report of the Engineering Advisory Committee of the Upper Colorado River Basin Compact Cornrr~ssion (see Record of Upper Colorado River Basin Compact Commission - hereinafter referred to as Record - Volume III, p_ 3). Such figure is based on stream fiOi"TS of the 1914-1945 period. The figures as to stream accretions and depletions below Lee Ferry are taken in your analysis from the Bureau of Reclamation Blue Book, pp. 282-284. The Blue Book figures are based on stream flows for the 1897-1943 period. For the figures to be precise they should cover the same periods. If you had used the Blue Book figure of 16,270,000 acre-feet for the virgin Lee Ferry fl~ff, your computations would have shown no shortage because the Blue Book figure on virgin Lee Ferry flow is 531,500 acre-feet greater than the Record figure and this quantity would wipe out the 411,500 acre- feet shortage which you find. l ~ .. ;0... >.':""'C -,< -, ~-O'~"'-'.':'''1.-.;,~;: