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<br />developed a model to forecast demand to the build-out of the CSA based on this analysis. <br />The model results \\'ere then modified to renect two additional factors: a reduction over <br />time for "natural replacement" of plumbing fixtures and appliances with more ellieient <br />lixtures, and the addition of demands for fixed and special contracts in which Denver <br />Water is obligated to provide water beyond the CSA boundary. <br /> <br />Denver Watcr based demogmphic growth forecasts within its CSA on the latest regional <br />forecast (1999) from the Denver Regional Council of GOVCnlments (DRCOG). That <br />forecast is prepared under the direction of DR COG's Economic Task Force, a group of <br />economic and demographic experts within the region. [)RCOG independently preparcs <br />its demographic forecasts to meet its Mctropolitan (transportation) Planning Organi/ation <br />and long-range regional development planning functions. This forecast extends to the <br />year 2020. <br /> <br />Denver Water employed It consultant to extend DRCOG's 2020 forecast for the areas <br />served by Denver Wuter to 2050. These extensions were consistent with IJRCOG's 2020 <br />forecasts. Currently, Denver Water serves approximately 1.2 million people and provides <br />water under lixed and special contracts that support approximately 120,000 people <br />beyond its CSA. When the population under lixcd contracts is added to the CSA <br />population in 2050, approximately 1.9 million people \vill be using Denver Water's <br />water. <br /> <br />Figure 5 shows the relationship between existing supplies and future water demand <br />projections. The noard maintains <130,000 acre-foot safety factor, which. when added to <br />the demand forecast. results in Denver Water's demand for planning purposes. <br /> <br />Figure 5 <br /> <br />I)(,II~U Wxlt'r I)t'IIlllnd "'orft'lISlllnd "'irm Yirld <br /> <br />450.000 <br />425,000 <br />400,000 <br /> <br />Firm <br />Yield <br /> <br />!.\ ... <br />',\\\ ..- , <br />\l~\\' _.... ~.',\(\O <br />... S,,(c\~ <br />... , <br />... <br />..... <br /> <br />.. <br /> <br />i 375.000 <br />~ <br />~ <br /> <br />.. <br />,. <br />." <br />," <br />325,000 ..- <br />. <br />300,000 I <br /> <br /> <br />350,000 <br /> <br />275,000 I <br />2000 <br /> <br />2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Build. <br />Year oul <br /> <br />" <br />C:\UocllmenlsanU SClhllgS\~}I'\l.ocol Sc1lmgslTcml'orlll}' lnlCmc1 Fllcs\OI.~ISO\M"mIlSyslcmI00603dOl: <br />