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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />eight years. As presented, this category of land use has increased by approximately 20 percent <br />over the last eight years. <br /> <br />Recreation also requires a specific amount of land. For the study area of the District, recreation <br />is confined to several small state and national wildlife refuge/areas and duck clubs. The <br />combined land use for these areas is approximately 35,000 acres. Over the past eight years this <br />number has not increased significantly. <br /> <br />III.A.4 Trends for Future Land Use <br />Recognizing the difficulty of predicting with any sort of accuracy actual land use over the next <br />50 years, this Chapter will identify and analyze trends leading to a viable land-use scenario. As <br />with any long-range planning effort, this study should be revisited periodically to update <br />projected land-use scenarios based on changing trends. This data is essential for establishing <br />future water requirements. <br /> <br />III.A.4a Agriculture <br />Agriculture has the potential to expand by approximately 24,500 acres to approximately 490,000 <br />acres, which includes approximately 21,500 acres (see Table III.A.l-l) of fallow land and <br />approximately 3,000 acres of undeveloped lands that have paid the District's Water Availability <br />Charge. The economy within the Valley is becoming more diversified. Agriculture, however, <br />will continue to be the primary industry within the District over the next 50 years. The two <br />principal factors that will affect the increase or reduction in crop acreage within the District will <br />be urban growth and the economics of the agriculture market. Two other factors that may <br />ultimately influence farmed acreage are the continued reduction in agricultural water supplies in <br />the Central Valley of California and increases in the cost of federal water supplies that are <br />available to that area. The guaranteed water supplies of the IID, if the price remains competitive, <br />could result in the relocation of some Central Valley farm operations to the Imperial Valley. <br />This could result in the development of mesa lands potentially capable of being farmed but not <br />currently developed. It should be pointed out, however, that lands not currently developed are <br />generally considered to be marginal with regards to their ability to be farmed profitably <br /> <br />Draft: Subject To Revision 12/21/95 <br /> <br />12 <br /> <br />