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COLORADO WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK REPORT JANUARY 1,2003 Summary After the drought of 2002 an excellent snowpack is critical for water users in 2003. To date, the state's snowpack falls short ofthat mark. A below average snowpack has been measured statewide for the sixth consecutive~~"'h_Adding to the water supply concerns are dry soils and well below average reservoir storage across the state. Although this year's snowpack is better than that of last year, adding the carryover effects of last year's drought leaves the state in a similar situation as last year at this time. Water users should keep close tabs on our snowpack and consider all feasible water conservation measures.as we look towards the 2003 demand season. Snowpack Snowpack data collected through the NRCS SNOTEL network indicates that Colorado's statewide snowpack is 85% of average, and is 131% of last year's snowpack. Below average totals were measured in all of the major river basins on January 1. Percents of average range from only 67% in the Rio Grande Basin, to as high as 93%, in both the Colorado and Gunnison basins. With several consecutive years of good to excellent snowpack needed to recover from our current drought conditions, these snowpack totals are far from a beginning. With the exception of two major storm events this fall, the storm track has been avoiding most of the state this season. Add to that, the fact that most years that begin with a below average snowpack also end with a below average snowpack; and our hope of a significant recovery this year quickly fades. One glimmer of hope, which remains on the horizon, is that in an El Nino year such as this, a wet spring remains a good possibility. With 60% of the winter snowpack accumulation season remaining, there's still time for improvement to the existing conditions. As an example-Gf-one drought recovery scenario, snowfall of 200% of average for the next three months would boost the state's snowpack to 150% of average by April 1. This would be an excellent start to drought recovery with abundant runoff and improved reservoir storage. Precipitation After making a recovery to above average monthly totals in September and October, 2002, precipitation totals at SNOTEL sites has decreased sharply. November's statewide precipitation was 97% of average, followed by a dismal 58% of average in December. Precipitation across Colorado in December was well below average statewide with many basins receiving less than half of their average for the month. Those basins reporting less than 50% of average for the month include the South Platte, Arkansas and Rio Grande. Elsewhere, the monthly percentages range as high as 70% of average in the Yampa and White River basins. Totals for December 2002 were even worse than last year's, at 94% of those totals. Water year totals (since October 1,2002) are consistently below average in all basins. While the 2003 water year is only three months old, the percents of average range from 79% of average in the Arkansas to 93% in the Gunnison Basin. Statewide, the water year precipitation stands at 90% of average.