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COLORADO WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK REPORT JANUARY 1, 2004 Summary While the 2004 water year began with a dry start in October, precipitation patterns improved in November and December, leaving optimism for at least a near average snowpack by spring. This is especially true for some of the driest basins, which are currently boasting some of the highest snowpack percentages in the state. While it remains early in the winter season, most of the state can expect near average runoff this summer, assuming near average precipitation throughout the remainder of the winter months. With reservoir storage volumes below average in all basins, this outlook should allow the state to continue its recovery from the drought of2002 and 2003. Snowpack With a warm and dry fall lingering through October, there were early concerns about a low snowpack year. By the end of October, only a few SNOTEL sites had recorded the winter's first snowfall. The season's first significant storms began in early November with impressive totals. These storms helped to ease concerns, with above average snowfall in all basins. All basins except the South Platte and Arkansas, received well above average snowfall during November, which helped to erase the deficit from the dry October. For the most part, December's snowfall was slightly below average with continued dryness across the South Platte and Arkansas basins. By January 1, the statewide snowpack was 92% of average and was 108% of last year's snowpack. The current statewide readings are the seventh consecutive year of below average January I snowpack readings. However, these readings are the highest since the abundant early season sriowpack of 1997: This year's snowpack totals were the lowest in the South Platte and Arkansas basins at only 67% and 69% of average, respectively. Meanwhile, the Yampa and White River basins reported the highest snowpack percentage at 108% of average. Typically, by January 1 we've received about 40% of our total seasonal snowpack. So, much of the state' has an adequate start to the 2004 season. As the South Platte and Arkansas basins continue to lag below average, any recovery will increasingly depend upon a wet spring. Precipitation The 2004 water year began with an extremely dry month. During October, 2003 statewide precipitation at SNOTEL sites was only 32% of the montWy average. Recovery came quickly in November, when SNOTEL sites recorded a statewide inonthly total of 142% of average. The November storms brought abundant moisture to all basins except the South Platte and Arkansas which received only slightly above average monthly totals. Statewide precipitation during December was only 85% of average, leaving the state at 90% of average for the first three months of the 2004 water year. By January 1, water year totals range from a low of only 71 % of average in the South Platte Basin to a high of 100% of average in the Yampa and White river basins. The three-month deficit, that ~as accumulated in the South Platte Basin, totals slightly more than two inches, and is nearly a month's accumulation at most locations in that basin.