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COLORADO WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK REPORT MARCH 1,2004 Summary Colorado's snowpack, as a percent of average, remains almost unchanged from last month. The weather trend for this year seems to be bripging most of the moisture across the southern portion of the state, while the northern mountains are missing the big storms, As a result ofthis pattern, this year's snowpack is a reversal oflast year's, with the best outlook for runoff across the southern basins. This will help improve the drought stressed reservoir storage in the southern basins, but will return heavy demands on those in the northern basins. Reservoir storage is currently below average nearly statewide, and the current outlook for runoff doesn't appear to bring much improvement as we enter the spring and summer months. Snowpack Only minor changes in percent of average snowpack were recorded across the state during February. The statewide snowpack inched up to 90% of average on March 1, just slightly higher than the 88% of average measured on February 1. Changes of less than 5% were measured across most of the state, with no change in the North Platte Basin. The only exception was the Arkansas Basin, which increased from 76% of average on February 1, to 90% of average on March 1. This basin was able to take advantage of the southern storm track which brought above average snowfall during February, Those basins now reporting above average totals include the Gunnison at 103% of average, the San Juan, Animas, Dolores, and San Miguel at 105% of average, and the Rio Grande at 108% of average. The South Platte Basin continues to track at the lowest percentage in the state. The March 1 reading:; of 69% of average are just a slight improvement from the 65% of average measured last month. With only one month remaining in the snowpack accumulation season, it's unlikely that March will bring enough snowfall for the basins across northern Colorado to reach average by April 1. While last year's snowfall accomplished that feat in the South Platte Basin, there have only been two years (2003 and 1983) out of the last 43 years, when March snowfall was heavy enough to eliminate such a deficit. This leaves that basin's chance of recovery at only 5%. A similar probability for statewide recovery stands at less than 25%.