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COLORADO WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK REPORT APRIL 1, 2004 Summary Hopes of ending the drought in 2004 evaporated along with the state's snowpack as warm and dry weather dominated the weather picture during March. Water supply shortages are now almost a certainty for water users across the state this summer. The warm and dry March weather has had a devastating impact on this year's runoff forecasts. ill many basins this year's low volumes may rival those of 2002. Since reservoir storage has yet to significantly recover from past drought years, supplemental flows will be limited. While the early melt has helped soil moisture conditions at lower elevations, additional losses are anticipated as the higher elevation snowpack melts off. Snowpack Colorado experienced a record breaking March weather pattern which brought record high temperatures to various locations around the state and induced snowmelt at mid to low mountain elevations. Accompanying the warm temperatures was an expanse of very dry weather. All this, at a time when the state's water users were banking on just the opposite conditions. Plummeting snowpack levels produced record low April 1 readings at sites with more than 60 years of data across the northern mountains. Snowpack readings are now well below average across the state with portions of northern Colorado exceeding the dry conditions of 2002. Statewide, snowpack readings dropped from 90% of average on March 1, to only 65% of average on April 1. These readings are far below those oflast year, at only 69% of the 2003 readings. - Those basins which recorded the greatest decreases in percent of average snowpack from last month include the Gunnison, down 29 percentage points to 74% of average, the Arkansas, down 30 percentage points to 60% of average, the Rio Grande, down 31 percentage points to 77% of average, and the combined San Juan, Animas, Dolores, and San Miguel basins, down 35 percentage points to 70% of average. Across the basins of northern Colorado the declines were less severe, yet the seasonal accumulations in these basins have been the poorest throughout the winter. The South Platte Basin continues to report the lowest percent of average snowpack in the state, at only 51 % of average. This year's snowpack in the South Platte Basin has dipped to less than that measured on April 1, 2002. While snowpack conditions can improve with cool and wet weather during April, it remains an extremely remote chance that those improvements can make a significant difference forthe state's water supplies.