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The European model was too conservative <br />(yet better than most other models) in <br />anticipating the rapid retreat from El Niño <br />conditions last winter (left). <br />It did a fantastic job in hanging on to <br />near-neutral conditions through the early <br />summer of 2007 (middle & bottom <br />right), followed by a late summer drop <br />into La Niña. <br />