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Executive Summary (17 March 2008) <br />“Official” version athttp://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/SWcasts/ <br />: <br />• <br />A moderate-to-strong La Niña has been in place since August 2007, and is <br />expected to continue for at least another three months, possiblyright through <br />the summer. <br />• <br />The last three months have brought above-normal moisture to Colorado’s <br />mountains, in excess of La Ni ñ a-based expectations. The next two weeks do <br />not look too promising for moisture, but so have been many previous two-week <br />periods that ended up wet in the mountains. <br />• <br />My experimental forecast guidance for spring is surprisingly optimistic for <br />eastern Colorado, while the rest of our state has not tilt one way or the other. <br />Based on monthly composites, the lack of a negative tilt despitea pervasive <br />tendency for dry weather during La Niña springs is anchored by the month of <br />April.Essentially Aprils can be wet or dry with La Niña, the 1999 April being <br />the last of example of a very wet La Niña April. IF we go thru April and do not <br />get much moisture, the odds for a dry spring go up dramatically. <br />• <br />Bottomline: After a surprisingly wet winter season, March has stillcontinued <br />wet in the mountains, while the rest of the state has shown the more typical La <br />Niña-related dryness, last night’s storm notwithstanding. Once we are through <br />April, the remainder of spring into the summer is more likely toend up drier <br />than normal rather than wetter than normal, unless we get a surprise onset of <br />an El Niño. <br />