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9 I I I I I, I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 2. SCIENTIFIC DESIGN OF PROGRAMME AL GHAIT 2.1 Purpose and Approach The purpose of the project was to develop within GOM an ability to design, plan, implement, monitor, and evaluate scientifically based programs of winter snowpack augmentation in the context of water resources management. The institutional development of the DMN, through the transfer of weather modification technology to their staff, providing of new equipment, and training on the equipment operation and maintenance, was considered to be of primary importance. The first step in developing the operational design for Programme Al Ghait, taken during the November 1983 assessment visit, was to examine results of cloud seeding in regions having climates similar to that of Morocco to see what operational approaches, if any, had provided evidence of increases in precipitation, Initial comparisons indicated that some precipitation augmentation projects in California were suitable analogues of the Moroccan situation. Both Morocco and California have Mediterranean climates with pronounced winter maxima of precipitation, and both receive most of their precipitation as maritime air masses flowing inland impinge upon high mountain ranges. The 1983 assessment noted that operational cloud seeding programs in California aimed at increasing winter orographic precipitation had given statistical indications of increases of 3 to 10 percent in annual runoff from precipitation. Most of these projects involved the release of silver iodide (AgI) crystals to form additional ice particles in supercooled clouds or mixed-phase clouds. The AgI generators were operated either on the ground or on aircraft flying at temperatures slightly below 0 oc. Development of the operational plan for the Winter Snowpack Augmentation Project required a more in-depth evaluation of the climate of Morocco, especially as it related to the frequency and duration of winter orographic cloud seeding opportunities. Since no cloud physics data were available for Morocco, the collection of sample data sets followed by an analysis of these data for seedability was given high priority. This was necessary so that cloud seeding procedures could be designed to maximize seeding effectiveness. The demonstration project was designed to be evolutionary in its implementation, Initial emphasis was devoted to acquisition and installation of the equipment and facilities necessary for conducting cloud seeding operations, initiation of training in the various dimensions of the project, and establishment of an organizational and operational framework for the project. Initial operations were restricted to VFR (visual flight rules) airborne seeding of the target area during daylight hours using only uniform, simplified flight procedures. After the operations personnel gained additional knowledge and experience and the necessary equipment and facilities had been installed, the seeding operations were extended to include IFR (instrument flight rules) airborne seeding and ground-based seeding using manually operated silver iodide generators. In order to ensure the technically responsible and economically feasible application of cloud seeding technology as a water resources management tool rather than as an emergency response to drought conditions, the project design included physical, statistical, and economic evaluations to provide a basis for a rational decisionmaking process governing the use of this technology. The Winter SnowpackAugmentation Project's Evaluation Program was developed in four major parts as follows: