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<br />1.3 Summertime convective cloud seeding <br /> <br /> <br />Seeding of convective clouds to enhance rainfall or suppress hail have been of great <br />interest in the past 40 years. Numerous operational, some with a research component, and <br />research projects have been conducted worldwide. The results of certain projects indicated <br />positive increases of rainfall due to cloud seeding, others showed a decrease in rainfall w~le <br />the majority indicated inconclusive results. Again, the initial optimism has been replaced <br />by a more cautious approach. Braham (1986) lists a number of factors that have limited <br />research progress, which can be summarized in two points: the large natural variability, <br />and an incomplete understanding of the physical processes involved. <br /> <br />(' - <br /> <br />Most of the seeding hypothesis developed and tested in the past never tried to <br />quantify the results but rather produced statistically qualitative results of responses to <br />seeding from a randomized seeding experiment conducted for an extended period of <br />time. These experiments usually treated the physical precipitation formation mechanisms <br />within the cloud as a 'black box'. Seeding effects were evaluated by analyzing rainfall <br />measurements at the surface or from radar utilizing a z..R relationship. The motivation <br />and conception of these projects were based on conceptual models developed from past <br />experience defining conditions that are conducive to positive seeding effects. These <br />conceptual models were based on i) visual observations of clouds that did not precipitate, <br />ii) the presence of supercooled water, ill) the similarity with clouds in other regions which <br />responded positively to seeding and iv) data collected with aircraft and radars amongst <br />others (Vali et al., 1988). Another general approach that was used during the late 70's <br />was to establish a concise hypothesis describing each step in the physical chain of events <br />leading to precipitation formation in both seeded and natural clouds. The final link in <br />the chain of events was precipitation at the surface. An example of this approach is <br />evident in the HIPLEX-l experiment. A detailed seeding hypothesis (Smith et al., 1984), <br />together with a well-designed field program, which monitored each step in the physical <br /> <br /> <br />11 <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br />