Laserfiche WebLink
<br />(about 10 km) the average precipitation would be 8.3 in.., almost twice the observed amount. This <br />calculation suggests that a substantial amount of excess SL W was transported over the Plateau as has been <br />found over other mountain barriers in the intermountain West (e.g., Super and Huggins 1993). The <br />portion of excess SL W that cloud seeding can convert to precipitation has yet to be demonstrated. <br />However, the "raw material" needed for seeding to be effective certainly exists in relative abundance. <br />The availability of abundant SL W has been assumed for decades but has been verified only in the past <br />several years. <br /> <br />The 1991 data set also raises questions about the effectiveness of the Utah operational seeding program. <br />Physical reasoning was presented that suggested seeding rates may be too low, at least for warmer storms. <br />Admittedly, the estimates of effective IN may be flawed by instrumentation limitations and possible <br />unrepresentativeness of CSU generator calibrations for winter orographic clouds. However, in the <br />absence of better information, the observations and calculations presented in this paper indicated there is <br />reason to be concerned. Production of adequate concentrations of seeded ice particles is basic to <br />successful seeding. This topic deserves further investigation in the Utah operational program in <br />particular, and in seeding programs in general. <br /> <br />The main problem for the Utah operational seeding program appears to be the relatively warm SL W <br />temperatures combined with the strong temperature dependence of AgI as an effective IN. This problem <br />could be partially remedied by increasing the source strength of potential IN using improved seeding <br />generators and solutions and higher AgI output rates. However, the SL W is probably too warm for <br />effective seeding with any practical AgI solution and seeding rate some of the time. Even transporting the <br />AgI to higher, colder altitudes by aircraft seeding would frequently be ineffective because the AgI would <br />then be above the SL W needed to nucleate ice crystals. <br /> <br />This is not to suggest that more effective AgI solutions and higher output generators should not be <br />employed. Anything done to increase the output of effective IN should help seeding effectiveness. <br />However, practical limits exist regarding what can be done with AgI. A large fraction of the winter <br />storms, tending to be those with highest SL W amounts, likely cannot be effectively seeded with present <br />AgI solutions because the SL W is simply too warm:. <br /> <br />The problem of seeding warm SL W. with AgI is not unique to Utah. The statistic.al analysis of Super and <br />Heimbach (1983) strongly suggested that the warmer, wetter half of Montana winter orographic storms <br />did not respond to AgI seeding, but the colder, drier storms (<-9 oC at 2600 m) clouds did respond. The <br />State of California has been developing a propane seeding technology because the warm SL W problem is <br />severe there (Reynolds, 1991). Propane seeding can create high concentrations of ice crystals at <br />temperatures colder than 0 oC. Remote-controlled propane dispensers are much more economical than <br />remote-controlled AgI generators, and are more reliable because they are much simpler devices. <br />However, they must be located in or very near clouds to be effective. <br /> <br />It is recommended that the State of Utah pursue a number of approaches aimed at increasing the <br />effectiveness of the operational seeding program. High output generators and more effective AgI <br />solutions should be considered. Higher altitude release sites would increase the frequency of targeting <br />SL W clouds. The possibility of high altitude releases from mountains upwind from the target areas <br />deserves further exploration. Ongoing analysis suggests that AgI releases above canyon mouths may be <br />more effective than AgI releases from valley floor locations. Finally, propane seeding should receive <br />serious attenti~n because even warm storms can be seeded as long as the propane dispensers are located at <br />high altitudes within the orographic cloud. <br /> <br />53 <br /> <br /> <br />