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<br />2. The Demonstration Phase <br /> <br />Each of the three cloud seeding options includes a second, randomized <br />demonstration phase. The objectives of this phase are to produce addi- <br />tional water in one or more subbasins, and to prove the amount of the <br />increase. Even though the number of seeding events will be tempered <br />because of the randomization feature, the water production objective is <br />similar to the goal of an operational mode. Experience indicates that the <br />effects of this type of demonstration andlor an operational program could <br />include those covered in the following sections. <br /> <br />a. Impacts on Weather Elements <br /> <br />The consensus of scientific opinion is that a full-fledged operational <br />winter cloud seeding program in the Rocky Mountains of the Colorado <br />River Basin could result in a 10 to 15 percent precipitation increase. <br />Such an increase would be nested within a naturally high year-to-year <br />60 to 170 percent variation in precipitation over the long term [10]. <br /> <br />Studies of precipitation downwind from winter orographic cloud seeding <br />areas have shown increases at distances up to 250 km. Research does <br />not indicate that seeding-produced increases in one area deprive a <br />downwind area of precipitation. The Colorado River Basin Precipitation <br />Management design will provide for quantification of extra-areal <br />downwind precipitation effects due to seeding in the primary project <br />areas. <br /> <br />19 <br />