PROJ01952 ‎(2)‎

• Contract/PO #: C150131
• Contractor Name: Paonia, Town of
• Contract Type: Loan
• Water District: 0
• Loan Projects - Doc Type: Feasibility Study

SUPPLY VERSUS DEMAND COMPARISON

Future Water Demands

During the February 2002 public meeting, there was a consensus that Paonia
should plan for some level of growth and nobody at the public meeting indicated that
zero growth was desired for Paonia's water system. The consensus at the public
meeting seemed to be that future growth should be based on the recent growth history
of the Town's system.

A review of tap sales during the 11-year period from 1991 through 2001
indicated that in-town and out-of-town growth was similar to the Census data for about
the same period (1990 to 2000). In-town active taps had increased from about 794 to
839 taps, which equates to an average annual increase in taps of 0.5 per year within
the Town boundaries. Out-of-town tap sales increased at higher rates from about 443
taps at the end of 1990 to 548 taps at the end of 2001. This represents an average
annual growth rate of about 2.2 percent per year for out-of-town customers. Wheeler
weighted the average' in-town and out-of-town growth percentages in taps sales by the
current number of active in-town and out-of-town taps to develop a weighted average
of total system tap growth based on tap sales of about 1.2 percent per year. A similar
weighted average of in-town growth based on Census data of 0.7 percent for in-town
customers and Delta County Census growth of 3.3 percent for out-of-town customers
resulted in a total weighted average of 1.3 percent growth per year. This analysis
indicated that based on historic growth generally occurring in the 1990s, planning for
the future growth of Paonia's system should be in the range of 1.0 to 1.5 percent per
year. Consequently, future water demand growth projections were based on a lower
bound of 1.0 percent, an upper bound of 2.0 percent, and 1.5 percent as the most
likely average annual system growth rate.

Wheeler used 184 million gallons (565 acre-feet) in 2000 as the starting point of
our future demand analysis. Based on the data summarized in Table 5, this is the
, amount of water that is required to overcome system losses and deliver year 2000
treated water demands of 141 million gallons (433 acre-feet). This approach is

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