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<br />U.Y 2OD3 Snowp.ck OLtlook
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<br />Experimental snowpack outlooks for Colorado. The plot above compares observed May snowpack for all
<br />years to snowpack in EI Nino years (pink x's). A quantile regression methodology provides empirical estimates
<br />of the snowpack probablities for May 2003. This method uses both the historical record and the March 1
<br />snowpack to estimate the distribution of May snowpack during an El Nino. EI Nino years used are:
<br />1969. 1973, 1978, 1980, 1983, 1987, 1988. 1992, 1993, 1995. and 1998. Gunnison basin snow pack tends to be
<br />higher in May in EI Nino years; the median May snowpack is about 150% of normal (black dot). This
<br />experimental outlook is produced at CDC based on a 1968.2003 snowcourse record from NRC5,and is
<br />availa ble at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/-sjain/snowpack/index.html.
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<br />The NOAA CPC Apr.May-Jun outlook for above
<br />normal precipitation is expected for portions of
<br />the southwest including southern Colorado,
<br />reflecting the left over influence of EI Nino and
<br />long term trends. Some EI Nino and other winter
<br />weather effects are expected to carryover into the
<br />spring and summer through memory in the climate
<br />system such as soil moisture. Conditions are uncertain
<br />in Colorado for the remainder of the spring and summer.
<br />This outlook is available at
<br />http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/po-oducts/predictionsl9Oday.
<br />It will be updated April 17th. An experimental
<br />forecast for the interior West is being produced at
<br />CDC based on a more detailed analysis of the region.
<br />For April-June 2003, this forecast projects an
<br />increased chance of above normal precipitation
<br />for eastern Colorado, but, in contrast to the CPC
<br />" forecast, it projects a slightly increased risk of
<br />dry conditions for southwestern Colorado
<br />(http://w.NW~dc.noaa.gov/-kew/5WCiJsts).
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