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<br /> <br /> Source: Hoerling and Eicheid <br /> 4 12 . 26 <br /> . <br /> . <br /> 10 . <br /> . 24 <br /> 3 . <br /> . <br /> 8 . a::: <br /> - . 22 <br /> ~ . <br /> . .... <br /> 2 6 . - <br /> . - <br /> ::!1 . 20 .... <br />fI1 . 0 <br />::I '-' . l:I <br />..... ~ 4 18 <br />fI1 Q) > <br />..... 2 <br />Q) Q) 16 (") <br />u r.:... "1 <br /> 0 0 (1) <br />fI1 Q) 14 <br />Q) M I,r( ':J <br />Q) 0 -2 (1) <br />s.. -1 < 12 (1) <br />QO t'1'" <br />Q) ~ -4 10 - <br />t:l 0 ~ <br /> -2 ..... -6 <br /> ..... ~ <br /> ..... 8 <br /> ..... <br /> :::s -8 ......... <br /> -3 6 <br /> -10 4 <br /> -4 -12 <br /> 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 <br /> Year <br /> <br />FIGURE VI-2: Colorado River Basin Temperatures <br /> <br />Colorado State Climatologist Nolan Doesken and NOAA scientist Klaus Wolter recently <br />released a study of temperatures within Colorado. 158 Doesken and Wolter conclude that there have <br />been statistically significant increases in temperatures in Colorado, especially in the spring months <br />and most prominently in the north central mountains. <br /> <br />In February 2007, the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released its 2007 <br />"Supplement for Policy Makers" (SPM). The SPM concludes that it is almost a certainty the <br />worldwide temperatures will continue to rise well into the 21 st century.159 <br /> <br />Precipitation Changes <br /> <br />There is much less certainty over future changes in precipitation. The modeling results <br />generally forecast little annual change in precipitation in the entire region. Over the next 10 to 40 <br />years, modeling suggests a slight increase in annual precipitation in Northwest, slight decreases in <br />precipitation in the Southwest and virtually no change in the Upper Colorado River Basin.160 In a <br />2006 study, Christensen and Lettenmaier note that most Global Circulation Models (GCMs) had <br />modest reductions in summer precipitation and increases in winter precipitation. 161 <br /> <br />158A copy of the study is available on the Western Water Assessment web site www.coJorado.edu. <br /> <br />15~e SPM can be viewed at www.ipcc.ch/. The Supplement presents different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios. <br /> <br />IW"Colorado River Basin Water Management", page 63. <br /> <br />161"A Multimodel esemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado <br />River Basin," Niklas Christensen and Dennis P. Lettenmaier. 2006. <br /> <br />Page -71- <br />