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-2- <br />"How much water from the Colorado River Basin System is available to meet <br />Colorado's current and future water needs?" <br />Colorado River Water Availability Study Goal <br />The answer to that question will take into consideration the following factors. <br />Hydrology varies in time, location and amount. Agreement on how to consider these factors in a water <br />availability study will be important to gain greater understanding and acceptance of the study conclusion. As <br />described later in this scope the initial study phase will focus on issues in a period of known hydrology and a <br />period extended from known hydrology. <br />Water Availability -will include both legal and physical supply considerations. Initially legal availability will <br />consider current demands. <br />Water Use -water use consideration (also referred to as demands) should include existing absolute water rights. <br />Water uses will also include existing transmountain diversions. Water use can be measured in terms of <br />consumptive use, gross diversions or total deliveries. Categories of water use include municipal (domestic and <br />commercial), industrial, agricultural, water rights for instream environmental flows and water rights for <br />recreational in-channel diversions. To fully answer the above question it will be important to examine the <br />interplay between future consumptive and non-consumptive uses in the context of the Colorado River Compact. <br />At various locations within the state initial water availability will be evaluated using the following formula: <br />Water Availability Physical Supply -Current Water Use (includes downstream demands) <br />The above factors can be modified using various assumptions and techniques. It is the application of these <br />assumptions and techniques which dramatically increases the complexity of the analysis. In addition, <br />assumptions/techniques in considering the following factors also affect the precisions and accuracy of the <br />analysis: <br />• methods for determining consumptive use <br />• legal interpretations which may constrain supply <br />characterization of shortages to current demands <br />characterization of current demand patterns/project operations <br />time steps (instantaneous, daily, monthly, yearly, multiyear) associated with demands <br />• reliability considerations in meeting a set or sets of demands (risk) <br />• assumptions regarding temperature and the impacts of temperature changes on the timing and amount of <br />consumptive uses and return flows <br />~ assumptions regarding precipitation (timing, amount, form) <br />The scope of work being developed includes assumptions regarding how some of the above factors will be <br />considered and evaluated (in some case it may be overly speculative to make assumptions). It is important to <br />note that there is no single right or wrong answer. In addition, how an individual views the risks associated <br />with future use will in large part correlate with the extent to which that individual current use is met (i.e., those <br />users whose current needs are not being met may take on considerably more risk then those whose current needs <br />Flood Protection • Water Project Planning and Finance • Stream and Lake Protection <br />Water Supply Protection • Conservation Planning <br />