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Section 6 Water Needs Assessment This remaining gap is the result of water providers indicating that while they might have projects in mind for meeting future demands, they saw significant implementation challenges and were less confident of successful implementation without additional assistance. The remaining gap also consists of areas where there are known limitations on available supplies or where future growth is projected in areas where there is not currently a water provider. The estimate of gap was subtracted from the overall increase in demands for M&I from 2000 to 2030 for each basin or subbasin, along with additional savings from Level 1 conservation anticipated by 2030, to identify the demands that will be met by the Identified Projects and Processes (including additional conservation). Additional conservation must be carefully evaluated for potential impacts on the reliability of water systems to meet demands during droughts. If water providers rely on temporary water use restrictions to ensure adequate supplies during droughts, then permanent water conservation savings that are allocated to new growth may decrease the ability to achieve the necessary additional reductions in demand during drought periods. This concern, referred to as "hardening of demand" is discussed in Section 8. must be initiated to ensure that the next increment of supply available when needed. However, it is important to make the clear distinction between excess supply capacity and actual use - actual use of water supplies will not exceed demands, even if excess capacity is available. Many of the Identified Projects and Processes being pursued by M&I water providers include one or more of the following: ^ Transferring agricultural rights from outside existing or future service areas ^ Acquiring agricultural rights through development of irrigated lands or annexation requirements ^ Acquiring additional water delivery contracts from the BOR, conservancy districts, or other local or regional water projects ^ Maximizing the use of existing water rights ^ Enlarging existing storage facilities to firm existing and future water rights ^ Continuing, expanding, and developing water conservation programs and public education programs to encourage efficient water use SWSI found that, if fully implemented, the Identified Projects and Processes are capable of ineeting up to 80 percent of the state's projected M&I water needs through 2030. That is, statewide, about 511,800 AF of the 630,000 AF projected increase and demand by 2030 could be addressed with the Identified Projects and Processes, leaving a remaining gap in supply of about 118,200 AF statewide. In many cases, M&I water providers indicated that their entire increase in demand would be satisfied through their own existing supplies and Identified Projects and Processes, meaning that there would be no gap for that provider. Often, this includes conservation measures that will reduce demands beyond the reductions anticipated from Level 1 conservation. Since water supply projects typically are developed in large increments of yield, many providers may have "excess" supply capacity at any given point in time. That is, it is infeasible for providers to bring on new incremental supplies on a monthly or annual basis to precisely match the progression of increases in demands. Instead, excess supply capacity will be available until demands increase to the point that actions ^ Developing additional supplies for well augmentation by acquiring CU supplies from agricultural transfers, new storage, or water delivery contracts ^ Developing new storage to firm existing and future rights and capture consumable supplies for later use ^ Increased reuse of existing consumable supplies or developing reuse strategies for future consumable supplies including non-potable irrigation of parks and golf courses, exchanges and indirect potable reuse by blending return flows with existing raw water supplies Each Identified Project and Process has some risk that it will not yield all of the intended water supply. There will be increased competition for future M&I water supplies - especially along the Front Range as many water providers have indicated that they will meet future demands through the development of existing or future conditional storage rights or acquisition of agricultural water rights or water delivery contracts. During the SWSI process, it became apparent that many water providers had identified the same sources of water and there may not be adequate supplies to meet the needs of the various providers. In addition to competition for the same limited water resources, there are risks that permits may r~ S:\REPORIIWORD PROCESSING\REPORllS6 11-8-04.DOC 6-.~