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Executive Summary To illustrate the possible impacts of the uncertainty of the successful implementation of Identified Projects and Processes, Figure ES-10 shows the total acres of irrigated farm land that could be removed from irrigated production if 25 to 50 percent of the Identified Projects and Processes were not successfully implemented, and the resulting gap in supply were met by agricultural transfers. It is important to note that agricultural transfers will require storage to firm the water supply for municipal and industrial uses. N 300,000 `w o~ ~ 0 ~ 250,000 c Q w ~ ~ zoo,ooo v v~ Q N -a ~ 150,000 r c~ ~v ~~ ~ W 100,000 ow v ~~ ~o E '~ 50,000 ~, z -~ 0 a .. 25% 50% Uncertainty in Identified Projects & Processes Figure ES-10 Potential Impact on Irrigated Agricultural Acres if Identified Projects & Processes are Not Implemented In addition, the negative consequences that result from agricultural land dry-up are not fully understood and documented. Understanding the tradeoffs between transferring an existing agricultural water use versus developing new storage of unappropriated water is essential to making wise water resource management decisions. SWSI will examine this issue in more detail during the next phase of work (2005). It is also important to point out that in many agricultural communities, the owners of water rights often wish to retain their ability to sell or lease their water. This can and has been a divisive issue in some of our basins. In Colorado, water rights are property rights and farmers and ranchers must retain their ability to sell or transfer their water under a free market system. This tenet is vital to retain the economic value of the water and is an important option to M&I providers as they strive to meet their future needs. ~ $~ole'ri~ice Wo~e' $upplY Initia~ive 4. Supplies are Not Necessarily where Demands Are; Localized Shortages Exist; Compact Entitlements are Not Fully Utilized. All basins except for the North Platte and Yampa/White/ Green have identified future gaps in meeting 2030 M&I water demands that are not addressed by the Identified Projects and Processes. Basins that have developable supplies may still show gaps due to the geographic location of demand in relation to the available supplies. Developable supplies are defined as water supplies that can be developed with new water projects or water rights and require both the physical and legal availability of the water supplies. Localized M&I shortages are projected in most basins. Many headwaters areas will see significant percentage increases in M&I needs and these areas will also be seeking to address recreational and environmental uses. Some of these headwater areas will have limitations on future water development due to lack of available flows both on average and during drought (seasonal or dry year limitations due to lack of physical availability) or downstream senior water rights demands. The existence of senior water rights will require the replacement of new junior consumptive uses (augmentation of depletions) to downstream senior agricultural and municipal diversions, CWCB instream flow rights, and recreational in-channel diversion water rights. Some of the mountain headwater areas, such as Gunnison County in the Gunnison Basin and Grand and Summit Counties in the Colorado Basin are projected to have gaps in meeting demands, even though these basins have supplies that can be developed by future water projects because supplies are not at the location of demand. Other headwater areas, such as Chaffee County in the Arkansas Basin, have gaps and there are no additional supplies to develop. Meeting future water demands in Chaffee County will require the use of existing supplies or the transfer of water from other uses such as agriculture. In the Dolores/San Juan/San Miguel Basin, much of the growth in M&I needs will likely occur in areas or tributary basins between some of the larger surface water supplies. The areas between Pagosa Springs and Durango, the La Plata Basin, the upper portion of the San Miguel Basin, and some areas near Cortez will need additional infrastructure to store and transport water to the demand locations. ~~ S:\REPORT\WORD PROCESSING\REPORT\EXEC SUMMARY 11-10-04.DOC ES-19