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V. Conservation Impacts on SWSI <br />Water Demand Forecast <br />One component of the alternative water demand scenarios is the potential <br />impact of future water conservation. The baseline water demand by county <br />described in Chapter 4 is adjusted for future conservation impacts in the <br />conservation demand forecast. This consists of a percent adjustment to the <br />Municipal and Industrial (M&I) component of water demand for each <br />county, as described in this chapter. <br />Water conservation programs result in improved water use efficiency at the <br />end uses of water. That is, water savings occur through the modification of <br />water-using fixtures (e.g., showers, landscapes, cooling towers) and <br />behaviors (e.g., showering time, irrigation schedules, maintenance <br />schedules). The conservation impact on M&I water demand is the result of <br />both passive and active water conservation efforts. <br />M&I Passive Conservation Effect <br />Passive (or "naturally-occurring") water conservation savings are defined as <br />water savings that result from the impacts of plumbing codes, ordinances <br />and standards that improve the efficiency of water use. These conservation <br />savings are called "passive° savings because water utilities do not actively <br />fund and implement programs that produce these savings. In contrast, water <br />conservation savings resulting from utility-sponsored water conservation <br />programs are referred to as "active° savings. <br />The National Energy Policy Act of 1992 set manufacturing standards for <br />improved water efficiency for toilets, urinals, showerheads and faucets. <br />These standards became effective in 1994. The standards for commercial <br />fixtures became effective in 1997. These standards affect the types of water- <br />using fixtures available for new construction as well as remodeled or <br />renovated facilities, and result in improved indoor water use efficiency. In <br />addition, some municipalities have ordinances that limit turf or irrigated <br />areas, which reduce outdoor water use. <br />Typically, estimates of passive savings for a given water utility service area, <br />or other planning area, are a function of characteristics of the service area <br />such as the percent of water efficient fixtures present at some base period in <br />time and subsequent new construction and remodeling. Other factors to be <br />considered in estimating passive savings are (1) the percent of new <br />construction in compliance with the standards and codes, including an <br />accounting for proper installation, (2) the presence of end uses in the service <br />area, and (3) the intensity, or frequency of use, of relevant end uses. <br />The estimation and allocation of total water use among various end uses may <br />be seasonal. For example, irrigation is expected to be a larger component of <br />total water use in summer months than in winter months. Locations affected <br />by landscaping ordinances may have a greater impact from passive <br />conservation in the summer months, while locations without landscaping <br />V. Conservation Impacts on SWSI Water Demand Forecast 33 <br />