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Executive Summary <br />3. To the Extent That These Identified M&I <br />Projects and Processes Are Not Successfully <br />Implemented, Colorado Could See a Significantly <br />Greater Reduction in Irrigated Agricultural Lands <br />In considering the M&I Identified Projects and Processes, <br />the SWSI team and Basin Roundtable members <br />recognized that there is at least some uncertainty in the <br />implementation of these projects and processes. That is, <br />for various reasons, any project that is not yet fully <br />implemented could fail to result in the full water supply <br />amount envisioned. For example, there will likely be <br />some competition for available water supplies, because <br />in some cases, providers have identified the same future <br />sources. Some providers, mindful of the uncertainty, are <br />currently pursuing multiple projects, but will not need to <br />complete all of them. Others will need every identified <br />project to meet future demands. Other solutions may <br />yield less or store less than currently envisioned due to <br />permitting constraints or other factors. <br />Some projects may never be permitted or may never be <br />constructed due to implementation constraints. <br />Uncertainty, high costs, and the protracted time frame <br />associated with project permitting is a major issue for <br />new water projects. Improving the permitting process at <br />the federal level (e.g., special use permits, Section 404 <br />permits) and at the county level (e.g., County 1041 <br />permitting) could reduce the costs and time associated <br />with water supply project development. More discussion <br />on this topic is needed. Some have indicated that this is <br />an obstacle, while others are concerned that impacts of <br />water development could go unmitigated. <br />Withoutjudging the merits of specific Identified Projects <br />and Processes, SWSI sought to understand the potential <br />implications of the uncertainty associated with the <br />Identified Projects and Processes. It was assumed that <br />the projected additional savings associated with Level 1 <br />conservation are certain to occur, because low-flow <br />devices will continue to be installed in new construction <br />and replace older, higher-flow devices in response to the <br />National Energy Policy Act of 1992. <br />In order to illustrate how future water needs will change if <br />all Identified Projects and Processes are not <br />implemented, uncertainty levels of 25 percent and <br />50 percent were applied to the yield of the Identified <br />Projects and Processes to illustrate a range of possible <br />outcomes. The results highlight the importance of <br />~~ <br />~oo% <br />~ so% <br />~ so% <br />0 <br />~ ~o~ro <br />~ so~io <br />~ <br />v <br />~ so~io <br />v <br />~ ao~io <br />o so~io <br />~ <br />~ zo~io <br />a 10% <br />o~io <br />Uncertainty in Identified Projects & Processes <br />Figure ES-9 <br />Implications of Uncertainty in Identified Projects and <br />Processes on Meeting 2030 M&I and SS/ Water Needs <br />fcurrently-identified solutions in meeting Colorado's <br />future water demands. Figure ES-9 illustrates the <br />implications of uncertainty in the Identified Projects and <br />Processes. If a portion of the Identified Projects and <br />Processes fails to be fully implemented, demand and <br />competition for Colorado's water resources will be further <br />increased and the need to implement alternative <br />solutions will be evident. <br />Any yield that would otherwise have come from Identified <br />Projects and Processes for M&I use might instead be <br />satisfied with additional permanent agricultural transfers <br />or new water supply projects or a combination of both. <br />History has shown that M&I providers will indeed find a <br />way to meet their customers' needs, and agricultural <br />water is oftentimes the least expensive and most readily- <br />available source for meeting those needs. <br />Thus, it is possible that a failure to implement any portion <br />of the Identified Projects and Processes could result in <br />even greater impacts to irrigated agriculture and the <br />economies dependent thereon. A range of potential <br />changes to irrigated acres was shown in Figure ES-5. <br />The lower end of the range (least reductions in acreage) <br />reflects the assumption that all Identified Projects and <br />Processes, including additional conservation, are <br />successfully implemented. As noted, not all of the <br />reduction in irrigated acreage would be available for <br />transfer to meet M&I needs. <br />~~ <br />Sfvtewide Woter Supoly Initiofive <br />ES-18 S:\REPORT\WORD PROCESSING\REPORT\EXEC SUMMARY 11-10-04.DOC <br />0% 25% 50% <br />