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<br />Comments to SWSJ, November 3, 2003, by John Wiener
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<br />And, based on that assessment, what is the relevant research agenda for development of the
<br />expert systems which are most likely to support public use and acceptance of the increased
<br />opportunities for flexibility in water management?
<br />
<br />A final note: future values
<br />
<br />One need not accept climate modeling or claims of any particular change either forecast or used
<br />for study purposes to find valuable reviews of current agricultural trends in the reports
<br />commissioned for the US Global Change Research Program. Those for the Great Plains and for
<br />the Rocky Mountain-Great Basin Regions, and the Agriculture and Water Sectors include
<br />careful reviews of trends in the area which are often driven by forces not much related to climate,
<br />including the national agricultural situation and agricultural policies. With those trends in mind,
<br />and the changes in land use already under way, it is almost certain that the value of water for
<br />purposes such as maintenance of environmental qualities and buffers will increase in the near
<br />future. The suite of changes already underway presents a threatening prospect for all water
<br />users, under current policy and shifts in public preferences (see Feather et al. 1999, McGranahan
<br />1999, and Heimlich and Anderson 2001; and see also Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, 2001
<br />symposium on forces shaping the heartland; available on-line). Low-yielding agriculture may
<br />have water to transfer for other purposes not yet being funded as much as in the future. Also in
<br />the wind is increased recognition of the environmental amenity and benefits in urban as well as
<br />rural areas from the so-called "inefficiencies" of traditional water use which supports habitat and
<br />wetlands throughout the areas served by the water distribution system (see Heimlich 1998).
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<br />DISCLAIMER AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This memorandum reflects countless helpful
<br />conversations from many people, but the author is responsible for misunderstandings and errors.
<br />The approach of working with a simplified example, and this example, was used by Division
<br />Engineer Steve Witte, who is not responsible for the author's elaboration, commentary and
<br />recommendations.
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<br />Thanks are due especially to Bob Appel, Marshall Frasier, Luis Garcia, Tim Gates, Chris
<br />Goemans, Bob Hamilton, Chuck Hanagan, Donny Hanson, Bill Hancock, Bert Hartman, Charles
<br />Howe, John Knapp, Bill Milenski, Tom Musgrove, Jim Phene, Joel Schneekloth, Tom Simpson,
<br />Lorenz Sutherland, Jim Valliant, Robert Ward, Reagan Waskom, Ken Weber, and Wayne
<br />Whittaker; they may not agree with any of this.
<br />
<br />References for Memorandum on Agricultural Efficiency Problem:
<br />
<br />Adams, D.B., Ed., 1999, Potential ConseQuences of Climate Variability and ChanQe to Water Resources of
<br />the United States. Herndon, VA: American Water Resources Association.
<br />Archibald, S.O. and M.E. Renwick, 1998, Expected transactions costs and incentives for water market
<br />development. Pp 95-117 in Easter, W.K., MW. Rosegrant and A. Dinar, Eds., Markets for Water:
<br />Potential and Performance. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
<br />Arndt, H.w., 1987, Economic Development: the History of an Idea. Chicago: University of Chicago.
<br />Berkes, F., 2002, Cross-scale Institutional Linkages: Perspectives from the Bottom Up. Pp 293-321 in
<br />Ostrom, E., T. Dietz, N. DOlsak, P.C. Stern, S. Stonich, and E.U. Weber, Eds., The Drama of the
<br />Commons. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.
<br />Blaikie, P., T. Cannon, I. Davies, and B. Wisner, 1994, At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerabilitv. and
<br />Disasters. London: Routledge.
<br />Cernea, M., Ed., 1991, PuUina People First - Socioloaical Variables in Rural Development. 2d. Ed. Oxford
<br />University Press for the World Bank.
<br />Chambers, R., 1997, Whose Realitv Counts? Puttina the first last. London: Intermediate Technology.
<br />Colby, B.G., 1998, Negotiated Transactions as Conflict Resolution Mechanisms: Water Bargaining in the
<br />U.S. West. Pp 77-94 in Easter, W.K., M.w. Rosegrant and A. Dinar, Eds., Markets for Water:
<br />Potential and Performance. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
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