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Comments to SWSI, November 3,2003, by John Wiener 16 operation of some lands as seed-farms to assure availability of the best varieties and mixes of cover vegetation for times when rangelands are put into reserve, irrigated and dry-land farming acres are not cropped, and so forth. The publio has an interest in helping landowners avoid erosion, maintain fertility, and provide open space and environmental benefits, while retaining the ability to return to farming as desired. The Central Plains Irrigation Association is a terrific provider of assistance and information for improving uses of farmland with irrigation technology; this is the flip side of that research and extension. Another research task is helping direct the in-stream flow program and the possible loans and donations to it, for the benefit of environmental buffers and benefits during hard times. The CWCS could administer a small but valuable effort to help identify places and kinds of resources most "needy" or "worthy" of water charity, going beyond just identifying dry reaches where that is appropriate. The advance identification of problem areas could help ward off the kinds of trouble that result from both the crossing of environmental thresholds, and the public concerns that arise from that. It might even be possible to develop intergovernmental agreements with USDA and its agencies to apply drought relief funding and emergency appropriations to helping support such planning. and then to paying landowners for these services and qualities of land use, or perhaps options to use the land as needed. This could consolidate many of the various reserve programs and wetlands programs (and wetlands banking) in a form that might achieve some streamlining and Clarity which could alleviate the administrative nightmares for the state and federal agencies. (Could, if that were a specific goat and research request, I think...) In summary on the drought history, if Henz's predictions are not to be dismissed, in my opinion, and the practical implications are about the same as those from the climate impacts literature. The climate impacts concerns Here is a selection of forecasts from the climate impacts assessment literature, relevant to the SWSI considerations: the most complete collection is in the USGCRP Overview of Climate Chanae Impaots on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability. These are typical of the range of assessments work, and all are subject to the concerns noted above. Each assessment also provides information about the relative level of confidence in the forecasts. . Lower and earlier-melting snowpacks, particularly in Western snowmelt-dominated basins, greater percent of winter precipitation as rain. What are the implications for reservoir-based systems? For new development? For the small versus large systems? . Increased salinity could result from lower average streamflows, and perhaps especially lower flows during already dry late summer periods. . Soil moisture likely to decrease with increasing temperature and thus increasing ET, perhaps even with increased total precipitation. Note: area to East, "lee" of Rockies, forecast by models selected to provide contrasting outputs (Hadley and CeM) to experienoe reduced precipitation as well as warmer temperatures. This is ominous, since there are few regional forecasts $0 widely agreed-upon by different models. . The decreasing soil moisture problem may also mean decreasing groundwater recharge to aquifers which are not already non~renewable resources, and may indirectly affect surface flows which are alluvially extensive. Threat to groundwater users? Opportunity for benefit from need for more recharge by intentional acts (ponds, injection, up-stream flow management)? Public interest in buying return flows from junior water rights?