ArkansasComments11 - Laserfiche WebLink

Home Browse Search

Comments to SWSI, November 3, 2003, by John Wiener 13 AWRA. The Journal of the American Water Resources Association has also published considerable scholarship, but listing all the sources by journals would take a long time. The "heated debate" as one book title (arguing it's all wrong, I think; don't know) has it, goes on.. Reports on Colorado places and sectors There is a very good and pleasantly accessible report from Dr. Dennis Ojima and Dr. Jill Lackett, and their colleagues and a large group of farmers and ranchers which provides the "best available" wrap-up for the Plains at the moment. It's called: Ojima, Dennis, S. and Jill M. Lackett, Compilers, and others, July 2002: Preparing for a Chancinc Climate: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variabilitv and Chanae -- Report of the Central Great Plains Reaional Assessment Group, for the US Global Change Research Program. Fort Collins -" Colorado State University. The report is available at http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects/gpa/gpa_report.pdf Prospects for agriculture in the Plains are problematic, because of the difficulties for many common activities and how they compare to national production. In short, things are not likely to improve for marginal farming even if regional yields are not hurt but the national production is increased, because the price squeeze is unlikely to be relieved, and may be worsened. If regional yields are decreased, so much the worse. One interesting result is that irrigated agriculture may not be helped even if climate favors farming, since the dryland growers would be comparatively much better off without the costs of production that irrigation involved. There is a new assessment for the Rocky Mountains and Great Basin region. which may be useful for the West Slope interests in agriculture and range management; this one was based at Utah State University. It is Wagner, F.H., Ed., 2003, Rockv Mountain - Great Basin Reaional Climate Chance Assessment. Report for the US Global Change Research Program, Logan, UT: Utah State University, available at: http://www.cnr. usu .edu/default.asp?category=publications&section=publications&content=climate Unhappily, the current conditions include strong prospects for continuing decline in the agricultural sector of the region, almost regardless of any climate change. There are some high- value areas and specialty crops, of course, but in general the trend is downward as water moves to municipal uses from low productivity extensive land uses. Hay alone was 41% of the crop value in a non-drought year. The tourism, outdoor recreation, and amenity-driven population growth are likely to increase in importance even if there is an increase in water availability. The value of maintaining flexibility in water distribution, especially to keep alive the chances for development of more specialty and high-value crops, may be particularly under-appreciated in the West Slope area. (One is reminded of the specialty bean crops from Dove Creek and Cortez as examples, and the wine and fruit business in Palisade, the Paonia area (especially before the mining housing destroyed famous orchards - they may be back someday!), and the OJathe sweet corn specialty crops; Green River melons, and so forth.) The "overview" from the US GCRP National Assessment Synthesis Team is quite brief on each of the regions and the sectors; for example. see the Great Plains: http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessmenVoverviewgreatplains.htm There is also the collection of regional assessments. and sector reports for the National Assessment. These were synthesized into the "foundation document", which is another rendition. One reason for the many editions is literally editing and reviewing by different panels and officials. because of the heavy political weight of controversy over climate issues. The "water sector" report is considered excellent