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<br />Comments to SWSJ, November 3,2003, by John Wiener <br /> <br />15 <br /> <br />broadly to changing conditions in agriculture - of which changing climate is only one <br />factor4!1 (Reilly et al. 2001: 122). <br /> <br />The most important implication, in my opiniont is that the unforeseeable future adds weight to the <br />wisdom of maintaining water distribution flexibility. The sector team identified changes in sowing <br />dates, fallowing practices, and changes in irrigation and drainage as likely to be useful in some of <br />the possibre circumstancest and they also were concerned with soil erosion reduction and <br />impacts of changes in land use. This report is ReiUYt J4, at aJ. 2001, Agriculture: the potential <br />consequences of climate variabilitv and chanae for the United States, US National Assessment of <br />the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and ChangeJ US Global Change Research <br />Program. It is available at: <http://www.usgcrp~gov/usgcrp/nacc/default.htm>. <br /> <br />There is also some up-dating from many of the same researchers: Reilly, J.J et at, 2003i U.S. <br />Agriculture and Climate Change: New Results, Climatic Chanae 57: 43..69 (may be available on- <br />line th rough unive rsities: http://www . kluweronlin e .comnssn/0165-0009/contents). <br /> <br />Again, they find with further work that climate impacts on US agricuJture as a whole may be small, <br />in terms of production, and may be less decisive than the influence of other factors. <br />Economically, farmers and ranchers are not expected to benefit, and sorne areas may suffer <br />considerably more than others, while some benefit PersonaUYI I find this depressing for the <br />Colorado prospects, and hope that Dr. Pielke Sr. is right about the chances to modify larger..scale <br />processes by local and regional land and water use4 <br /> <br />One persistent issue in the efforts to consider possible changes is the countervaiHng influences of <br />increased precipitation, widely expectedt though not everywhere, and increased productivity for <br />some kinds of crops from the increased levels of carbon dioxide, versus the decreased water <br />availabilIty from warmer temperatures -- the ET increase.. The warmer night-time and longer <br />warm seasons expected are very worrisome for soil moisture, in terms of infiltration and retention~ <br /> <br />Drought and the past variability <br /> <br />Turning to drought, the 2002 events brought to light a great deal of paleo-climatoJogy on tree-ring, <br />lake sediment~ and other evidence of past dry periods and variabiHty in climate. Since John Henz <br />addressed this already, I will not. And, the Colorado State University Water Resources Research <br />Center and other water-related departments and services have provided excellent coverage of <br />both drought impacts and drought history in the State4 It is interesting and sad to read the report <br />of the 1977 Cororado Drouaht WorkshoDs, available from CSU WRRI, Information Series No. 27, <br />under publications < http://www~cwrri.colostate.edu/>; things have not changed much. The CSU <br />WRRI publication on Water in the Balance (#9), A Historv of Drouaht in Colorado; <br />Lessons Learned and What Lies Ahead is yery informative. The drought literature is quite large; <br />Wilhite and his Nationar Drought Mitigation Center provide exceUent sources and 5yntheses~ <br /> <br />But, from my own work (notably a forthcoming book chapter, soon to be avaHable I hope) on <br />drought policy, 1 will note that Homer Kraenzel.s powerful advice to Itbe resilientlf1 from The Great <br />Plains in Transition (1955, Oklahoma) hasn1t been taken wen enough and is still right The great <br />majority of drought policy, as Wilhite has shown (noted above) is devoted to emergency <br />response~ I can this lithe stability biasll ..... the urge to "make it like it was"J to Uget back to normal". <br />The bias is in investing and re..investing in "normal" when in fact this part of the world has a highly <br />variable past and doubtless future. Why not invest in resilience -. the quality of being able to <br />absorb shocks without breaking, and being able to - in practical terms - put aside some activities <br />and enterprises under adverse circumstances} and resume when conditions are more favorable. <br /> <br />I think it is well worth considering the costs and benefits of a State program, for jnstance~ to <br />support work by the Extension and Experiment Station and cooperators on designation and <br />