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<br />Comments to SWSI, November 3,2003, by John Wiener
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<br />And, based on that assessment. what is the rerevant research agenda for deveropment of the
<br />expert systems which are most likely to support public use and acceptance of the increased
<br />opportunities for ffexibility in water management?
<br />
<br />A final note: future values
<br />
<br />One need not accept cfimate modeling or claims of any particular change either forecast or used
<br />for study purposes to find valuable reviews of current agricultural trends in the reports
<br />commissioned for the US Globar Change Research Program.. Those for the Great Plains and for
<br />the Rocky Mountain-Great Basin Regionsf and the Agriculture and Water Sectors include
<br />careful reviews of trends in the area which are often driven by forces not much re'ated to climatef
<br />including the national agricultural situation and agriculturaf policies. With those trends in mind,
<br />and the changes in land use already under way, it is almost certain that the vaJue of water for
<br />purposes such as maintenance of environmental qualities and buffers will increase in the near
<br />future. The suite of changes already underway presents a threatening prospect for aU water
<br />users, under current policy and shifts in public preferences (see Feather at at 1999, McGranahan
<br />1999, and HeimUch and Anderson 2001; and see also Kansas City Federaf Reserve Bankt 2001
<br />symposium on forces shaping the heartland; available on-line). Low-yielding agriculture may
<br />have water to transfer for other purposes not yet being funded as much as in the future. Arso in
<br />the wind is inoreased recognition of the environmental amenity and benefits in urban as weJI as
<br />rurar areas from the so-calfed lIinefficiencies.. of traditional water use which supports habitat and
<br />wetlands throughout the areas served by the water distribution system (see Heimlich 1998).
<br />
<br />DISCLAIMER AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This memorandum reflects countless helpful
<br />conversations from many peoplet but the author is responsible for misunderstandings and errors.
<br />The approach of working with a simplified exampre, and this example, was used by Division
<br />Engineer Steve Witte, who is not responsible for the authoris efaboration, commentary and
<br />recommendations.
<br />
<br />Thanks are due especiaUy to Bob Appel, MarshaU Frasier, Lujs Garcia, Tim Gates, Chris
<br />Goemans, Bob Hamilton, Chuck Hanagan, Donny Hanson, Bin Hancock, Bert Hartman, Charles
<br />Howe, John Knapp. BUI Milenski, Tom Musgrove, Jim Phene, Joel Schneekloth, Tom Simpson,
<br />Lorenz Sutherland, Jim Valliant, Robert Ward, Reagan Waskom, Ken Weber, and Wayne
<br />Whittaker; they may not agree wjth any of this~
<br />
<br />References for Memorandum on Agricultural Efficiency Problem:
<br />
<br />Adams, D.B.~ Ed., 1999, Potential Conseauences of Climate Variability and Chance to Water Resources of
<br />the United States. Herndon, VA: American Water Resources Association.
<br />Archibald, S.O. and M.E4 Renwick, 1998, Expected transactions costs and incentives for water market
<br />development. Pp 95-117 in Easter, W.K., M.W. Aosegrant and A~ Dinarl Eds., Markets for Water:
<br />Potentiar and Performance. Boston: Kruwer Academic Publishers.
<br />Arndt, H.W., 1987, Economic Development: the Historv of an Jdea. Chicago; University of Chicago.
<br />Berkes, F.t 2002, Cross-scale Institutional Linkages: Perspectives from the Bottom Up~ Pp 293-321 in
<br />Ostrom, E., T. DietzJ N. DoJsak, P.C~ Stern, S. Stanich, and E.U. Weber, Eds., The Drama of the
<br />Commons~ Washington, D.C~: National Academy Press.
<br />Blaikie, P.t T. CannonJ J. Davies, and B. Wisnert 1994, At Risk: Natural Hazards, Peoore's Vulnerabilitv4 and
<br />Disasters. London: Routledge.
<br />Cernea, M., Ed.~ 1991 t Puttinq Peoole First - Sociological Variables in Rural DevefoDment, 2d. Ed. Oxford
<br />University Press for the World Bank.
<br />Chambers, R.j 1997, Whose Realitv Counts? Puttina the first last London: Intermediate Technorogy.
<br />Colby, B.G., 1998, Negotiated Transactions as Conflict Resolution Mechanisms: Water Bargaining in the
<br />U.S. West. Pp 77-94 in Easter, W.K., M~W. Rosegrant and A~ Dinar, Eds4, Markets for Water:
<br />Potential and Performance. Boston~ Kluwer Academic PubJishers4
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